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Forecasts Are Not Analysis; They are opinion

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On May 7, 2013 @ 7:50 pm In Markets,Psychology,Really, really bad calls | Comments Disabled

 

We will soon have a real time, real life test of whether ______ can create “stimulus” without reform or restructuring can lead to prosperity.

When _____’s debt detonates, what will ______ say then, I wonder?

 

I keep coming across this sort of crap, and I have to throw a flag on the play:

Making a claim that some policy is wrong because of some vague danger at an unspecified date in the distant future is, well, bullshit.

To the guys have been warning about hyper-inflation, the collapse of the dollar, the impending market blow up, an interest rate spikes, etc. — you have been wrong for 5 years now — are you going to just keep doubling down?

There does not seem to be a lot of method to your madness. How about some data-driven analyses instead of empty headed fear-mongering? I am not suggesting you have to be bullish on equities or any other asset class — but an intelligent thought process would be quite nice for a change.

Here is an idea — how about giving us some guidelines as to early signs that will show your thesis is starting to come true? Yield spreads widening, foreclosures, increasing, year over year earnings falling — maybe a little something that you can point to as a signpost on the road to your being eventually correct?

I keep seeing these empty headed comments that are the equivalent of “You’ll see someday.”

Come back when you have some empirical proof about being right about something for a change


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