Hugh Hendry, of Eclectica Asset Management, takes the long view on investing at The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering on October 25th 2012. He was interviewed by The Economist’s Philip Coggan.

Listen to his comments at the end to regarding uncertainty:

Hugh Hendry: God is dead, China will follow

Buttonwood, November 26, 2012


Great stuff . . .

Category: Investing, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

12 Responses to “Hugh Hendry: Investing Amidst Crashes, China & Speculators”

  1. Willy2 says:

    1. Thanks for posting.
    2. I am still gold bug but I also know that gold can and WILL go down (more).
    3. “Macrobusiness”. ( from “Down under” (= Australia). Run by folks who have a very sound & clear view on economic events in the world.
    4. I DO NOT agree with Hendry’s view that the US & UK in the early 1930s provide a good roadmap for economic events going forward in the US & China. The UK had a (deflationary) crisis in 1926 when it revalued sterling. This deflation in 1926 severly slowed down growth of credit/debt. The result was that the UK experienced less economic contraction (in comparison with the US) in the early 1930s.

    • Willy2 says:

      1. Gold equals “flipping a coin” ? No way. I have an ratio that tells me in which direction gold will go.
      2. A lot of people see that a number of japanese companies are trading below book value and regard that as a opportunity to buy these companies. Hendry has analyzed those companies and found that these companies still have tonnes of “non productive assets” on their balance sheets and too much employees.
      Long DXJ ? No, I just went short DXJ.

  2. milkman says:

    Short the SP500 and long gold in Nov 2012? Wonder where he is today…

  3. PeterR says:

    Great stuff indeed from a man who unabashedly (but quietly) enjoys “contentious posturing” (1:45) and operating “outside the belief system” (4:00). Reminds me of someone . . .

    As Willy2 asked in the Nikkei article below, is Hendry’s target of 50/60 for the Yen possible? (10:30)

    Also, what about the “Double Jeopardy” (16:00) China may be in today (the video is from October 2012), and will it be selling more US Treasuries as a result?

    If indeed the Fed’s QE has been fortifying the S&P 500 (19:30), what does that portend for the equity markets if QE is going to end, and Helicopter Ben will be out by August?

    Is it possible that both equities AND bonds could be facing a tough row to hoe?

    Have a good long weekend, and thanks again Barry for a great site and forum for discussion!

  4. RW says:

    Thanks for this: Hendry is always a good listen even if — no, especially if — I don’t agree.

    China has proven so adept at playing the game its hard to believe they’ll slip now but there are certainly a lot of export economies, from Australia to Brazil, that could suffer if they do. It’s still a relatively closed society though so if they did slip it might be pretty difficult to detect it if they closed or polluted the information spigot.

    Japan is another story though and, judging by the context Hendry was addressing, the chance that they will stand by and allow the Yen to strengthen from here (much less allow it to reach the 60 range) is zero; I would agree with that and folks who think the BoJ is engaged in a high level of QE now ain’t seen nothing if the Yen appreciates. JMO

    • RW says:

      Mark Thoma links to this 1998 Paul Krugman article, The Hangover Theory, that provides good background to the larger point: Japan has tried many stratagems from austerity to an array of stimulus measures, but never opened the spigots full throttle …until now.

      This will be, correctly for once, widely recognized as a genuine Keynesian policy with more biased pundits labeling it a desperate and dangerous ‘experiment’ without of course acknowledging that the past several decades has been an experiment in neo-classical/supply-side economics followed by an experiment in austerity solutions to the problems created; the results of both experiments are in: FAIL.

      Japan is saying ’nuff. If they stick to it (and weightings in my tactical portfolio reflect my judgement they will) then we shall see what we shall see.

  5. [...] Hugh Hendry: Investing Amidst Crashes, China & Speculators | The Big Picture [...]

  6. futuresmkt says:

    His commentary is interesting but when I look at the performance of his fund (CF Eclectica Absolute Macro Fund), it has under-performed the S&P over the period.

  7. futuresmkt says:

    Ok. I watched the talk. He said, at the end, he will not prognosticate on the future of (any asset) prices. If not, then why would he have a fund?

  8. [...] Here’s a 20-min clip of Hendry (via the Big Picture) discussing the Chinese economic mirage (in his view), Japanese deflation, gold and more at The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering last October 25th. [...]