Succinct summation of the events for the week ending May 3, 2013.

Positives:

1. The markets hit new highs with the S&P 500 > 1600, Dow over 15,000.
2. April Payrolls +165k. Upward revision of 114k to the February and March. Unemployment rate falls to 7.5% 3. Average hourly earnings rise .2%, in line and average duration of unemployment falls.
4. Jobless claims come in at the lowest level since 2008. Claims drop 18,000 to 324,000
5. First time in 17 years the market hasn’t had a 5% correction from January through May.
6. Average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 4 month lows of 3.60%, prompting refi applications to rise 2.8% (most since January) .
7. FOMC minutes indicate the Fed will maintain its pace of $85B monthly bond buying (or may do even more).
8. March personal spending grows 0.2% v flat expectations.
9. Treasury yields hit 2013 low (so much for the “Great Rotation.”)
10. Case/Shiller home price index rises to highest since Dec ’08. Home prices rise 9.32% year-over-year; Home prices rise 1.24% month-over-month
11. Italian 10 year bond auction delivers the lowest yield since October 2010.
12. Ford sales up 17.9% in U.S. in April (year over year). GM April sales up 11%.
13. ISM manufacturing fell less than expected to 50.7. This beat economists’ expectations of a fall to 50.5. (glass half full)
14. Pending home sales jump 1.5% v expectations of +1%;
15. Stoxx 600 rises for the 11th straight month, the longest winning streak since 1997.

Negatives:

1. Euro-area Q4 household savings rate falls to the lowest levels since 1999.
2. Average work week falls to 34.4 from 34.6 hours; Labor participation rate = 63.3%, lowest since 1979
3. EU manufacturing at 46.7 remains firmly below 50.
4. Euro-area April economic confidence falls to 88.6 v expectations of 89.3.
5. March personal income grows 0.2% v expectations of 0.4%.
6. EU unemployment reaches another record high of 12.1%.
7. March Factory Orders fall 4% vs est of down 2.9% (February revised lower by 1.1%). Non defense cap goods orders ex aircraft revised lower y/o/y.
8. ISM mfr’g falls to 50.7, slowest since Dec. Employment component also falls to lowest since Nov at 50.2.
9. Chicago PMI slides to 49 v expectations of 52.5.
10. China PMI comes in at 50.6 v expectations of 50.7.Japan March industrial output rises 0.2% v expectations of +0.4%.
11. Greece retail sales -14.4% v expectations of 15.2%.
12. German retail sales in March in line but down .3% m/o/m  (Feb revised lower by 0.6).

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (May 3, 2013)”

  1. A says:

    5. First time in 17 years the market hasn’t had a 5% correction from January through May.

    Indication that now is the time to watch carefully. Anytime you start to think ‘this time is different’.

  2. Steve Duncan says:

    Why is the average work week falling to 34.6 hours to 34.4 hours? Is this because the new jobs being created are part tIme jobs versus full time jobs, or are companies forcing workers into part time positions due to Obama Care, or is the economy slowing down so less work hours are needed (people buying less due to having less to spend) or what? Is a .2 hour drop per week (on average for the entire workforce) a big deal or not so much?

  3. chartist says:

    Ponder this event: After years of forcing folks into defined contribution plans, the Fed realizes we are in deep doodoo if those stocks don’t payoff. I don’t care about anything else, the Fed is not going to let the second half of the boomer generation fall into the abyss. The first half of this generation received defined benefit plans. China is going to be the next economic leader, no surprise. But, they hate Japan. Japan makes good cars that WILL NOT sell in China. So, Japan is going to make cars where Henry Ford started, right here in the ole USA. Japan is screwed: poor demorgraphics and no natural resources. So, we are going to save Japan and in exchange get their manufacturing jobs. To be a powerhouse, you need to make good cars. Germany and Japan make good cars.

  4. chartist says:

    Here’s why, and I’ve had just enough gin to explain this: housing is a natural need that dates back to cave man days. Now, housing also factors in the changing demographics: one wage earner vs. two. It’s not enough to look at raw material cost and labor. It’s all about affordability. Otherwise, Hamptons housing would equal waterfront property on the great lakes.

  5. old trader says:

    Have to agree with “A”, above. Given that we’re just through the first few days of the month, it seems a bit premature to be popping that particular cork.

  6. Matt P. says:

    Comprehensive list this week.

  7. [...] – Succinct Summation Of The Week’s Events (Barry Ritholtz, TheBigPicture) [...]

  8. enloe creek says:

    there should be a ratio graph of total jobs to total people on public assistance such as SSI,SSDI, welfare, food stamps. In town where I live food stamps go to more people than have jobs.
    we are growing a permanent underclass, they are thriving because inflation is low and housing is cheap.
    I worry about the next generation when things are tight.