Succinct summation for the week  ending June 21, 2013.

Positives:

1. Fed: “Downside risks to outlook for economy, labor market have diminished.”
2. NAHB housing index hit 52 in June, highest level since 2006
3. Food prices fell 0.1%, largest decline since 09 (good for consumers).
4. The irrational fear money hiding in Gold gets shmeissed, hitting its lowest levels since 2010.
5. Philly fed manufacturing index came in at 12.5, its highest reading since April 2011.
6. U.S. May CPI continues to stabilize, nudging up +0.1% v expectations of +0.2%, core CPI +0.2%, in line with expectations.
7. Japan May exports rose 10.1% for the year v expectations of +5%.
8. Empire state factory index rose to a three month high.

Negatives:

1. Based on “diminished downside risks to outlook for economy, labor market,” the Fed begins discussing tapering QE.
2. Dow Jones saw its first back-to-back 200 point declines since November 2011 (Thursday down -353).
3. Eat like a bird, shit like a bear: May and June gains wiped out in 48 hours;  Thursday saw the biggest drop in the S&P 500 in 9 months.
4. Construction on new U.S. houses rose 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914k.
5. U.S. jobless claims rose 18k last week to 354k (4 week high).
6. Borrowing costs rise, with 10 year treasury yields at 2.5% — new 52 week highs.
7. Emerging markets lose 15% in 5 weeks.
8. Brazil crashes 20% in 4 weeks.
9. Protests break out in Brazil, riots break out in Turkey.
10. The markets have a hard time digesting the Fed’s message, volatility spikes (enter Hilsenrath).

Category: Markets

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4 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (6/21/13)”

  1. PeterR says:

    NYSE “Main Engine” breadth is showing positive divergences on the 30-minute chart IMO.

  2. VennData says:

    Americans Choose Gold as the Best Long-Term Investment

    ​”… Men, seniors, middle-income Americans, and Republicans are more enamored with gold​…”​

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/149195/americans-choose-gold-best-long-term-investment.aspx

    Hard to believe this demographic was wrong about anything.

    Hey, think of all the taxes you’ll save!

  3. [...] Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (The Big Picture) [...]

  4. On June 21 there was a huge negative:

    The primary trend of the market turned bearish according to Schannep’s flavor of the Dow Theory for the reasons explained here:

    http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/after-dust-hast-settled-commentary-to.html

    Such primary bear market signals last on average ca. 6 months. So while nothing is carved in stone, the odds favor lower prices in the weeks ahead. A time to be very cautious.

    Some experts say that more QE will follow and “tapering” will come to and end. Maybe so. If this happens, then we will see the primary trend turn bullish. But in the meantime, the market is bearish.