Wow, thats a helluva number for NFP this morning. If you don’t have anything better to do, here are some non NFP related reads to keep you otherwise occupied while the rest of us slip away . . .

• Fedspeak: Complex Monetary Policy Spawns Flights of Metaphors (WSJ)
• Surprise! Inflation is too low almost everywhere on earth (Wonkblog)
• Krugman: 2/3rds of Americans live in metro areas with half-a-million or more residents (NYT)
• Do budget deficits cause inflation?  (Mainly Macro) see also Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Wages: A Debate Between Miles Kimball and Matthew Rognlie (Supply-Side Liberal)
• In Connecticut, a struggle to launch Obamacare (WaPo)
• Basel Examines Banks’ Diverging Views of Risk-Weighted Assets (Bloomberg)
• Thoughts on the future of finance blogging (FT Alphaville) see also Finance blogging is not for the faint of heart (Abnormal Returns)
• How to Have a Year that Matters (Harvard Business Review)
• Around the world in 20 gaffes (Telegraph)
• The New Barbecue (WSJ)

Whats up for the weekend?

 

When Countries Celebrate their Independence
20130706_gdc038
Source: Economist

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “10 Friday AM Reads”

  1. VennData says:

    U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs

    Another LIE! If you continue to believe these gov’t numbers cooked up by the Chicago guys you will lose money!

    – Jack Welch.

    • VennData says:

      My technical analysis of Obama’s post-Bengazi – BENGAZI!!! – approval ratings chart show that he dropped below resistance and will head to zero soon, or lower. which means impeachment, Morsi-style. And it’s about time for me to interrupt someone.

      — Rick Santelli

  2. MayorQuimby says:

    Inflation too low? Ex-squeeze me?

    Any inflation is a bad thing in a low rate environment. Keep trying to stop the crack addict from puking by holding your hand over his face. Eventually the eruption will be epic.

  3. RW says:

    Charts Are Never Bullish or Bearish – People Are (ht AR)

    Charts reflect past price action that was driven by fundamentals and expectations. These two fundamental drivers of price can change anytime and as a result prices may suddenly reverse course. Those who think that charts can be bullish or bearish and base their trading decisions on such naive assessments sooner or later face the reality of ruin.

    WRT the employment report: we are in a politically inspired economic depression and expectations remain low which is the only reason the report looks “good.” The markets will not be fooled for long I think.

    FWIW arguments that the causes of unemployment are ‘structural’ have astonishingly little evidence in support and numerous counterfactuals but many elites appear to prefer the structural excuse, possibly because it rationalizes and normalizes what is actually a moral and intellectual collapse among policy and political leadership.

    • VennData says:

      How do you measure “depression?” GDP growth? Tax receipts? Employment growth? Exports? Corporate profits? Wealth? Declining deficits?

      If you measure in any of the above ways, we are in a period of sustainable growth.

      • RW says:

        @VennData, sustainable growth? Hard for me to look at that way when it is below demographic trend. This may be more answer than you were looking for but the topic is important I think.

        I mean depression in the sense of Krugman’s The Return of Depression Economics. There is a crisis, a collapse in demand, typically facilitated by flawed policies which is followed by a failure to return to trend growth largely due to inadequate policy response.

        Personally I see it as any period where the output gap is persistent (growth is less than capacity or demographic trend) and a willing/able worker is chronically unable to find work for which they are qualified and for which they can receive a living wage; e.g., DeLong, Krugman.

        Unlike the early days of the Great Depression we know perfectly well what to do during extended economic slumps but leadership has refused to do it and continues to drag their heels at every turn: Whether the reasons are ideological, political, incestuous amplification, revanchist, indifference or simple cowardice doesn’t much matter; they have failed and their failure is condemning millions of citizens to additional and prolonged suffering.

        NB: Soros’s principle of reflexivity is useful; i.e., unlike a normal, economically driven recession, a depression involves feedback mechanisms and becomes its own causality. The fear and flawed views of the world it engenders lead to inappropriate actions that appear “common-sensical” but are actually destructive and this will either lead to a doubling down on “common sense” or a refusal to act further, at least with the vigor required to get out of the hole. That is where we are now IMHO.

    • Did you ever consider that there are not only price charts?
      I’m sure charts can be bullish or bearish, but past price performance can never forecast future prices.

  4. DeDude says:

    Interesting table at “Calculated Risk” on changes in private employment.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/employment-report-more-hiring-wages-up.html

    The last 5 half year periods we have had private sector growth of about 1.2 million jobs (per 6 months). That is actually better than private sector job growths at any time during Bush/Cheney. So why is employment so much worse now? My guess is that a comparable table for public sector employment would answer that question.

  5. VennData says:

    Russia getting impatient with Snowden

    ​Dunning-Kruegar Boy didn’t have this thing all figured out like his SPIKE TV movie heroes and MMORPG avatars.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/us-usa-security-russia-idUSBRE9630IV20130704

    Help your hero Paul Rand! Filibuster the USSR Air traffic control system!!!

  6. Louis Rossouw says:

    The South African date on the chart is wrong (or at least mixing up some dates):
    South Africa became self-governing part of commonwealth as the Union of South Africa on 31 May 1910 (but remained part of British Empire).
    South Africa became a republic in 31 May 1961. This was when we excited the British empire and dropped the queen as monarch.
    On 27 April 1994 we held our first free elections for all. This is called Freedom day and is probably considered the equivalent of independence day in importance. Though strictly we were independent of colonial rule since at least 1961.
    In South Africa today 27 April 1994 is mostly celebrated and not the others. Though I feel for comparisons of independence the May 1910 or May 1961 is probably more relevant.