My morning reads:

• What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? (Street Smart Report)
• Market Timers Are Not Doing Well. For the most part, they never have (The Reformed Broker) see also So Far, ‘Sell in May’ Has Not Been the Way (Moneybeat)
• Fed Plays Part at the (Profit) Margins (WSJ)
Sheila Bair: Why Janet Yellen should succeed Ben Bernanke (Fortune)
• Keynes and Money: A Man Obsessed? (PBS)
• It’s Not Everyone’s Time to Buy a Home (NYT)
• Farm Bill Fiasco (Weekly Standard)
The best Detroit Bankruptcy Explainer I have seen yet: Don’t Let Bankruptcy Fool You: Detroit’s Not Dead (Atlantic Cities)
• Art Laffer + PR blitz = press failure (Columbia Journalism Review)
• Google Now Serves 25 Percent of North American Internet Traffic (Wired)

What are you reading?


Recovering U.K. opens gap over Europe
Source: CNNMoney

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

16 Responses to “10 Tuesday AM Reads”

  1. RW says:

    In Climbing Income Ladder, Location Matters

    A study finds the odds of rising to another income level are notably low in certain cities, like Atlanta and Charlotte, and much higher in New York and Boston.

    • bear_in_mind says:

      That whole report is fascinating. IMHO, one of the more intelligent demographic / socioeconomic studies on social mobility I’ve seen… and based on 1-2 interviews I’ve heard with the researchers, sounds like they have a pile of additional data to draw upon and publish more findings in years to come. Good stuff.

  2. VennData says:

    Justin Timberlake and Jay Z at Soldier Field concert review


    ​​Justin​ gets booed for crooning ‘New York, New York’ and jiz has to command people to sing his jingle as these corporate behemoths look to be a bit out of touch with the local ​demographic flavor​.

    They better have their marketing teams study the quantcast data:


    Rock on LLCs!

  3. farmera1 says:

    Buy and hold is a wonderful thing, except very few can do it. When you see your ability to retire, eat etc slipping away it is a very difficult thing to hang in there on the hold part. Dr. Hussman nails it.

  4. rd says:

    Interesting article here about why great teachers are quitting:

    The article actually downplays the extent of the problem. My wife is a teacher. The school district’s administration makes the General Motors management team of the 80s and 90s look stellar by comparison.

    Mandatory curriculums are put in place with testing attached to it but the details of the curriculum trickle out to the teachers well into the school year, so it is often difficult to teach the material that will be on the test that is used to define whether or not your kids are learning the curriculum. The actual teaching materials often show up well after he start of the school year. The concept of rolling out a curriculum in its entorety in the summer with the supplies waiting in the classroom before the school year starts is a totally foreign concept.

    Teachers are expected to print out their own materials for use in the classroom but the equipment and suppllies for printing and copying are very limited and often unavailable.

    Endless meetings (usually used to inform the teachers once again that they suck at their jobs) that don’t accomplish anything other than use up the teachers preparatory time right before the kids show up.

    massive purchases of technology that is then imposible to use. The IT department has structured itself to make the Soviet Union look efficient by comparison. Teachers are not permitted to have administrative rights so they can’t load software themselves. It can take a year or more to get a piece of software loaded onto a computer. As a result, you can have the computer and the software sitting on your desk for a year but you will not be able to actually use it in your classroom for a year or more. their are rooms full of unused computers in inner city schools starved for funds for other activities because the IT department can’t quite bring itself to make them functional.

    If General Motors had been run by a school district administration group, it would have been bankrupt by 1985 instead of 2009.

  5. rd says:

    On the secular bear market:

    One of my biggest concerns is htat the issues that developed over the past 20 years have not really been resolved yet. On the whole, the psychology in the financial sector was bruised in 2008-9 but not smashed. Overall debt is still very high and has not been thoroughly written down. More and more corporate earnings have been coming from bottom line cost cutting and financial machinations instead of top-line revenue growth. TBTF is just bigger than ever now.

    The secular bears usually act like a broom and dust pan to clean out the old regime to open the way for the new. That hasn’t really happened yet. I don’t know what the timing is, but there just isn’t enough gloom and doom and financial corpses to look right for the set-up of a new major bull market.

    • bear_in_mind says:

      I agree that there’s probably one more 30-to-45 percent plunge left before this bear goes into hibernation, however, I believe the bear-market low on the S&P (@ 672) has probably already happened.

  6. VennData says:

    Wasn’t Obama’s Racism Speech One of Those “Conversations” Republicans Keep Saying We Need to Have?

    Another GOP blather point. destroyed.

    I can’t wait to see what comes out of the Koch-Bros-funded secret lab to fight “The Narrative has Failed” barrage.

  7. hue says:

    You Won’t Believe Who The Largest Homeowner in America Is (Motley Fool) this sorta goes with the “So You Want to Be a Landlord?” post

    Fort Tells of Spain’s Early Ambition (NYTimes) we could have been a banana republic much sooner. 16th century fort in the Great Smoky Mountains was built 20 years before Raleigh’s lost colony, Jamestown or Plymouth.

  8. Marc Prosser says:

    I don’t believe that market timing itself is a bad idea. There are definitely times when the market is overbought or oversold. However, market timing for retail investors tends to be an emotional decision. They see other people making money and want to get in and sell at the first correction. In short, they way they time the market limits there upside and provides lots of downside risk.

    Here is a market timing question: Is now the time to cut back on interest rate risk? Do you know how much interest rate risk is in your portfolio?

    • bear_in_mind says:

      @Marc Prosser: But see, that’s the rub. Market timing might be a “good idea” but how do you objectively test the thesis? Who is keeping score? What are your metrics? Is your timeframe: one month? One year? One decade?

  9. bear_in_mind says:

    On the Google internet traffic article, it’s obvious that by purchasing YouTube, they’d inherit hosting all of that bandwidth. I think the bigger question becomes, can they ever really, truly monetize all these services and traffic? Or is it one big house of cards? I can’t remember the last Google ad I clicked, even accidentally, and try spend as little time as humanly possible on any site that’s serving them.

  10. bear_in_mind says:

    Thanks for sharing “The Farm Bill Fiasco.” Jeez, what a colossal clusterflock!

    The uber-conservative Conservatives put their foot down and decided ‘Merica can no longer afford those Cadillac-queen food subsidies for the frail, elderly and impoverished. You know, things like those delicious 5 lb bricks of nearly-inedible government issue cheddar cheese?

    But if Big Ag needs BILLIONS in extra padding to insure their shareholders increasing profits… well, unlike the poor, ‘dem dar multi-National biznessesses are honest, hard-working peoples, they are! These subsidies are JUST given the risks these wily entrepeneurs bear in the wild-and-wooly free-markets of American industry. Gag me with a pitchfork already…

    I suspect most citizens have no idea that persons receiving SSDI/SSI are not eligible for SNAP / Food Stamps. That’s right. Persons receiving SSDI/SSI are NOT ELIGIBLE for SNAP / Food Stamp benefits.

    So, the persons being directly harmed by Austerians are those individuals who already are barely surviving on the margins. Don’t take my word for it. Head over to the SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot (June 2013) and have a look for yourself (below).

    All the screaming over disabled persons collecting a windfall, well, the median take from SSDI in the category “Disabled Workers” is: $1,129.44 per month.

    One can argue that a some small minority of those receiving SSDI may be gaming-the-system, but is anyone really deluded enough to think that a person taking-in $13,553.20 a year is “getting over” on society? Who in their right mind would find that a goal in life to strive for?

    Ah, what do I know…

    SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot

    When House Conservatives SNAP, Here’s How Bad It Gets

  11. bear_in_mind says:

    Neil deGrasse Tyson is working on Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey for release in 2014.

    I love this quote by Carl Sagan’s widow, Ann Druyen:

    “That’s what Cosmos is about. It’s about a hopeful vision of the future,” Druyan said, “It’s about the future we could still have—it’s not too late—that is within our grasp if we could just awaken from this stupor that we’re in.”

    Neil deGrasse Tyson Says Long-Awaited Cosmos Sequel Tells ‘Greatest Story Ever Told’

    IMHO, Dr. deGrasse Tyson should be offered a free seat to the International Space Station to conduct a couple experiments and even further inspire his work into expanding our consciousness of space and other frontiers.