Succinct Summations week ending July 26, 2013.

Positives:

1. Dow is Positive for 5th consecutive week; S&P climbs to ~flat
2. U.S. new home sales rise to a 5-year high at 8.3%
3. June durable goods orders at 4.2% way above expectations of 1.4%
4. French manufacturing index rose to a 17-month high.
5. U Mich consumer sentiment 85.1 in July is highest level in six years
6. Apple, a heavily owned stock, beat analyst expectations (+~3.5%)
7. Durable goods orders were buoyed by a 31.4% rise in aircraft orders.
8. Euro-area manufacturing expanded in July for the first time in two years!
9. U.S. July flash factory PMI rose to a four-month high of 53.2
10. AAA said gasoline prices off 2.5 cents, after two prior weeks of gains
11. Japanese give Abe full government control, all eyes on structural reform

Negatives:

1. HSBC China flash PMI fell to 47.7 in July, an 11-month low (below 50 signals contraction).
2. Gas prices rose to a national average of $3.67, highest levels since 2008.
3. Existing home sales drop 1.2% to an annualized rate of 5.08M units, v expectations of 5.28M.
4. S&P 500 short interest at highest level since December (bullish if you’re contrarian)
5. Mediocre demand picture for newly issued US debt from Treasury, 2s, 5s and 7s. 10 yr yield up 8 bps on the week to two week high but also in sympathy with global rate rise.
6. Even with 10 bp drop in mortgage rates on the week, refi apps fall another .7%, down for 10th week in past 11 to two year low. Purchase apps down as well by 2.1% to four month low.
7. Richmond Fed manufacturing index declines to -11 v expectations of +9, ouch.
8. Durable goods orders ex-transportation was flat v expectations of a 0.5% gain.
9. Initial jobless claims rose to 343k v expectations of 340k, 334k previously.
10. Japanese June exports rise a less than expected 7.4% y/o/y vs est of up 10%.
11. Hong Kong exports in June fall .2% y/o/y vs expected gain of 2.4% as exports to all major regions fall.

Thanks Mike!

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (July 26, 2013)”

  1. Willy2 says:

    Negative: Since early 2012 the US Trade Deficit is shrinking. Points to a weakening US economy. Doesn’t bode well for foreign demand for T-bonds.

    • mitchn says:

      Or not. Hasn’t the trade deficit over the last thirty years been driven by oil imports? Maybe we’re importing less oil.

  2. VennData says:

    Funny guys can thank biology for why the ladies love them

    “…Boys and girls between the ages of 6 and 13 were shown funny videos; the female brains showed more heightened activity, which scientists theorize is due to the fact that the female brain and its reward circuit “is biologically better prepared to respond accordingly.” Get your ha-ha on, guys…”

    http://now.msn.com/women-love-funny-guys-stanford-university-study-says

    Seriously?

  3. chartist says:

    I expect Japanese exports to continue to drop as they’re building where they sell.

  4. chartist says:

    I no longer care about the Philly Fed or Richmond Fed, it’s the St. Louis Fed that covers the area where Japanese auto companies are building.

  5. [...] Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (The Big Picture) [...]