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Bull! Rallies Without 20% Corrections

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On August 13, 2013 @ 11:30 am In Cycles,Markets,Technical Analysis | Comments Disabled


click for larger table
no bulls no 20 percent [1]
Source: Merrill Lynch Global Research,


Interesting look at bull markets that have gone on without a 20% correction (note this is within the context of a 20%+ cyclical rally).

Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team note that 2 prior cyclical bull markets marked a transition from a secular bear market to a secular bull market:

April 1942 to May 1946: Markets then rallied to 1966;

October 1974 to November 1980: After a 24% pullback [2], secular bull market busted out in 1982.

Whether the March 2009 to August 13 2013 cycle will similarly mark the start of a longer secular bull has yet to be decisively determined.  The rallies off the bottoms in in 1942 and 1974 did mark generational lows.

Merrill adds that “December 1987 to Mar 2000 and March 1935 to March 1937, ushered in the start of the 2000-2013 and 1937-1950 secular trading ranges.


A closer look at the best bull markets in excess of 20%
Stephen Suttmeier, Jue Xiong
Merrill Lynch Global Research, 13 August 2013


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URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/08/bull-rallies-without-20-corrections/

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[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/no-bulls-no-20-percent.png

[2] 24% pullback: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/09/djia-1966-1982/

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