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NonFarm Payroll & Taper & Fed, Oh, My!

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 6, 2013 @ 7:19 am In Employment,Really, really bad calls | Comments Disabled

Here is the latest silly storyline of the month, aka media filler:

The Fed is debating tapering QE; Today we will get the very last Employment situation report before their next FOMC meeting. In case you have not been near a TV the past month, this FOMC meeting is the big one, where they decide to taper or not. Some have called it a “Mega Jobs Report [1].”

Yawn.

No, its not. The Fed does not make such decisions based on a single report. They are well aware of the various issues with NFP modeling. They may suffer from cognitive biases, but I doubt recency effects regarding monthly NFP is one of them.

Rather than regurgitate my usual Employment Situation laments, I am going to assume that most readers are fully aware of my thoughts on this issue. And for those of you who are not, below you will find some links that will give you the full monty on why most NFP releases are typically the most overhyped, overrated economic data point of the month.

Prior discussions of NFP

Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting [2] (June 8th, 2005)

NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point [3] (February 4th, 2011)

An Unusually Unusual NFP Payroll Day! [2] (June 3rd, 2011)

Predicting Jobs Data Is Hard — and Useless, Too. [4]   (May 3rd, 2013)

THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah [2] (June 7th, 2013)

“What’s Your NFP Number?” [Don't have one] [5]  (August 2nd, 2013)

That should give you some weekend reading, and a chance to reflect on what you are spending lots of time on and whether or not it is truly important.

~~~

Employment situation report [6] released at 8:30am


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/nonfarm-payroll-taper-fed-oh-my/

URLs in this post:

[1] Mega Jobs Report: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/09/05/5-Reasons-to-Pore-Over-Fridays-Mega-Jobs-Report

[2] Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/06/most-important-blah-blah-blah/

[3] NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/nfp-over-over-least/

[4] Predicting Jobs Data Is Hard — and Useless, Too.: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/predicting-jobs-data-is-hard-and-useless-too/

[5] “What’s Your NFP Number?” [Don't have one]: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/08/whats-your-nfp-number-dont-have-one/

[6] Employment situation report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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