- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -

Random Thoughts

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 11, 2013 @ 9:20 am In Investing,Markets,War/Defense | Comments Disabled

I do not like to make a big deal about 9/11. Longtime readers recall my experiences [1]. Instead of the orgiastic media coverage, I would much prefer a few moments of silence and quiet contemplation. At this point, I want to look forward, not back. Sorry, but thats just the way I feel.

Anyway, we have lots of items on our agenda, and for the 2nd day in a row, the LIRR has seen to it that I have lots of time to think about it. Here are some random thoughts:

• The Apple critics are astonishingly clueless. By all means, do tell us why the most successful tech company in the world who invented the space you didn’t know even existed 5 years ago is doing it all wrong. (#FAIL)

• A peaceful resolution of the Syria chemical weapons via diplomacy is a huge win — for the American people, for the deficit, for the America’s reputation, and for the Syrian people.

• So far, the markets have had a much better handle on the outcome of Syria than all of the pundits on TV combined. Fox News seems to find new ways to embarrass itself on this daily.

• I have no idea of the date when the Federal Reserve will taper their QE purchases, but I guess it will happen sooner rather than later. The spike in yields this summer was the bond market (imprecisely) anticipating this.

• I don’t know what will happen, but it would be amusing to see the equity markets continue to gain ground even after the Taper, if only to watch the anti-Fed zealots heads collectively explode. Or implode. In high def slow motion.

• I am starting to suspect that the Larry Summers lock on the Fed Cheif position is less of a lock than previously believed. Its not just that he is an ass who does not get along with others and lacks the temperament to be Fed chief, or that his judgement is awful, or that he is one of the major deregulators who helped cause the crisis, and lacks support amongst key Democratic Senators.

Oh wait, IT IS ALL those things.

• Markets remain neither cheap nor expensive. At these levels, future growth of equities is dependent upon 1) Earnings growth; 2) Psychology 3) Random events.

• Overall, this remains the least loved cyclical equity rally in my lifetime. So long as so many people continue to fight it, hate it, disbelieve it, blame/credit the Fed for it, refuse to participate in it, talk smack about it, significant upside remains.

Looks like I will be in the office late again so Reads are likely to be delayed as well. Blame the LIRR, now running 60+ minutes late . . .


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/random-thoughts/

URLs in this post:

[1] experiences: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2001/09/a-personal-recollection-from-a-day-of-horror/

Copyright © 2008 The Big Picture. All rights reserved.