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Lagged P/E Ratios: Shiller Cape vs NIPA

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 30, 2013 @ 12:02 pm In Data Analysis,Earnings,Valuation | Comments Disabled

click for ginormous charts
shiller cape [1]
NIPA  PE [2]
Source: JP Morgan

 

JP Morgan observes: “Shiller P/E shows the market to be overvalued, but not as extreme if you use the NIPA data.”

I’ve never used the NIPA data, so I have no real opinion on it.¬† The two charts look directionally similar, but different in terms of magnitude.

For those of you bulls in search of some valuation confirmation bias, NIPA is your best bet.

Thoughts?

 

 

Source:
Washington Reset: Investing in the Wake of the Shutdown
Dr. David Kelly Chief Global Strategist
J.P. Morgan Funds October 30, 2013


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[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/shiller-cape.png

[2] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NIPA-PE-.png

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