10.23.13 futes


A short note as I am running late this AM.

Markets are looking soft, and for more or less for no good reason. Perhaps its because they have been on a tear lately, and need to digest gains. Or maybe its for some completely other reason.

As I noted in the headline, I don’t know.

Investors would be better off if they stop trying to find a rational ause and effect for what oftentimes  is an unpredictable action in market prices — “random walk” in the parlance of this year’s Nobel winner.

That phrase “I don’t know” is another that should ente rmore investor’s lexicon as well.

Be back shortly…


Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “Look Out Below, I Don’t Know Why Edition”

  1. Mike in Nola says:


  2. rd says:

    Apparently some bank in China has more bad debt than people thought (must use the american bank accounting system).

    It is interesting that a bank problem in China can have as much impact on the US stock market as the impending demise of the full faith and crdit of the American government.

  3. jacobh says:

    Well, I’ve been up so Goddamn long
    That it looks like down to me

    Funny how a slight pullback is greeted with surprise with day after day moves to crazy highs.

  4. EdMcGon says:

    Barry, you had it right with the first guess: “they have been on a tear lately, and need to digest gains”. The technicals confirm this.

  5. Concerned Neighbour says:

    I don’t think a less than 0.5% pre-market fall, that as usual will likely get chipped away at til green during the trading day, calls for a “Look Out Below” post. Besides, don’t “markets” normally rise 0.5% each day in the pre-market? The new normal and all.

  6. My macro one liner is: Ignorance is bliss

  7. constantnormal says:

    If I might nudge forward a vote for investing via fundamentals — i.e., selecting stocks to buy/sell based on metrics like valuation (and there are more solid valuation metrics than PE), and assessments of industry direction … it’s really hard to build a case for investing in mainframes or even PCs, when the world is so clearly going mobile — I’m sure there are other on-going paradigm shifts in other industries that one can play by looking for stocks in those industries with good valuations and prospects.

    Might there possibly be viable advertising industry prospects that are *not* priced at a thousand bucks a share (with a PE in the high 20s)?

    I’ve been noticing, pretty much all summer long (and now into the fall), that the things that I follow whose businesses are doing well and have valuations on the low side, have tended to be up when the rest of the markets are down, and still move up (albeit at a more tepid pace) on the big up days for the markets as a whole. I dunno why, but I find it a welcome change from getting beaten black & blue for weeks at a time whilst sticking to a methodology that is clearly out of step with the market’s emotions.

  8. Joe says:

    I’d change that to “I don’t know, at this time.” Time determines whether movement was noise or not. Successful traders never exit at the highs or buy at the lows. That’s why I watch the daily price/news flow half for entertainment, half for info.

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