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ObamaCare: Investing Advice for Senator Ted Cruz

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 6, 2013 @ 10:00 am In Apprenticed Investor,Politics,Psychology,Really, really bad calls | Comments Disabled




My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look objectively at Obamacare — not the politics of it, but the investing aspect.

Its called: On Investing: The Obamacare portfolio [2].

My conclusion? If you were an objective observer of the legislation when it passed, and then again when the Supreme Court ruled on it, there was lots of money to be made. If you were a lizard-brained political wanker, you left plenty of easy money on the table:

“Indeed, emotional investing is rarely successful. Anyone with an intense emotional interest ignores data and facts that disagree with their views. The brain’s tendency to more easily forget that which we disagree with also works to fool these folks. Cognitive bias is a source of systematic errors to investors of all political persuasions – and it leads to under-performance.”

Here’s the advice I would have given Ted Cruz if we sat down after the ACA was first passed:

• The nation was going to create up to 50 million new health-care consumers [3];

• Demand for medical services and equipment was likely to rise;

• Innovative pharmaceuticals, procedures and techniques would also see increased demand;

• Hospitals would no longer be on the hook for free emergency room services, as they have for almost 3 decades.>

The Washington Post included a chart of XLV, as well as lots of more ideas for Senator Cruz.




On Investing: The Obamacare portfolio [2]
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, October 6 2013  

Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/obamacare-portfolio/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://www.washingtonpost.com/barry-ritholtz/2011/03/31/AFWBwIBC_viewAll.html

[2] On Investing: The Obamacare portfolio: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-investing-the-obamacare-portfolio/2013/10/03/1c4ca6ca-2c42-11e3-97a3-ff2758228523_story.html

[3] new health-care consumers: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/doctors-brace-for-health-law-s-surge-of-ailing-patients.html

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