click for ginormous chart
SPX cycles
Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan


Its time for the update of one of our favorite massive charts, via the quarterly Market Insights JPM puts out. (Yeah, I criticize Dimon but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some insightful people working for him).

As you can see, we are about 3 S&P points below where the quarter ended, despite all of the noise. This is why I suggest investors tuen out the short term, and focus on the longer term trends.


(You can download the full JPM Guide to Markets here).

Category: Cycles, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “S&P 500 at Inflection Points”

  1. KirkRog says:

    Don’t really know how to read this chart, the forward PE in 2002 is only slightly below today’s. The market still doesn’t feel like its in bubble territory over here in Europe. Do you think we’re heading for the financial Armageddon of 2009?

  2. 4whatitsworth says:

    I like the adjusted for inflation charts with the easy Fed this seems much more relevant these days.

  3. infosample says:

    Unless I’m mistaken, the first peak was the tech bubble, the second peak was the housing bubble, what is the third peak? QE bubble?

  4. wrongtrade says:

    It seems as though we will only know in retrospect if September 2013 turns out to be an “inflection point,” but comparing the data provided at these 3 similar market highs, the numbers look much less stressed for equities i.e. as new highs are made for the 3rd time the fundamentals are more supportive not less.

  5. Concerned Neighbour says:

    The forward P/E indicates stocks are only slightly overvalued. Unless, of course, you are willing to ignore record-low borrowing costs, tepid revenue growth, historically high profit margins, trillions of *tempory* (lol!) liquidity among other assorted risk factors.

    Of course, none of that matters. What matters is that Ms. Yellen is likely the next Fed Chair. She is very likely to continue Bernanke’s “pump every asset with a pulse” policy. If you think stocks are overvalued now, just wait a few years. The Dot Com Bubble could very well look like the buying opportunity of a lifetime…

    P.S. The “market” is almost back to all-time highs based on rumor, which I’m sure will not be priced in for another week at least. Then imagine where we’ll be when the agreement is actually formalized! It is an epic farce, and everyone knows it.

  6. Moss says:

    I think equities will be ramped as long as QE is still the policy. The Fed balance sheet is doing most of the heavy lifting. The Fed will only buy less bonds when It thinks the private sector will create more credit/loans. I don’t see that happening for a very long time. The gaps (credit,demand,employment) are all still prevalent. When all the attention is off the default risk and the shutdown ends then the focus will be back on the Fed and what Yellen will do.

  7. Angryman1 says:

    market analysis is useless until drinking John falls on the sword and lets Obamacare “go through”. Then everything ends in one fell swoop.

  8. panskeptic says:

    Someone just did a study of financial advisor’s motivations – why do they say what they say, why do they do what they do? They found the Number One motivation was to keep their job.

    Boehner will not fall on his sword, because he wants to keep his job, right up to the day Nancy Pelosi takes it back from him.

    Expect Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 12 until that happens.