Succinct Summations week ending October 4, 2013.

 

Positives:

1. Despite the government shutdown, equity markets were pretty calm, the Nasdaq hit a new 52-week high.
2. The national average price for a gallon of gas has declined for 30 straight days.
3. A 13 bp drop in average 30 yr mortgage rate, MBA refi apps rose 3.1% on the week.
4. Four-week moving average for jobless claims is the lowest since mid-2007.
5. NFP comes in at, doh!
6. Chicago PMI came in at 55.7 v expectations of 54, boosted by Detroit, of course.
7. ISM manufacturing rose to 56.2, the highest level since April 2011.
8. Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at 12.8, well above expectations of 5.5.
9. Japanese manufacturing PMI prints highest number since February 2011, score 1 for Abenomics
10. IMF, EU and ECB bless Portugal’s post bailout progress and their 10 yr yield drops a sharp 43 bps on the week to 6.4%, a 6 ½ week low.

Negatives:

1. Government shutdown continues. While its temporary, it’s a big inconvenience for those businesses that rely on government data or contracts
2. Mortgage applications fell 0.4%, down 5 of the past 8 weeks.
3. ADP came in at 166k expectations of 180k, job market still lousy.
4. September Vehicle sales cool off a bit to 15.21mm (est = 15.60mm) – the lowest since April
5. Prior ADP revised down to 159k v 176k.
6. Non-manufacturing ISM comes in at 54.4 v expectations of 57.
7. Initial jobless claims rose 1k last week to 308k.
8. HSBC China PMI came in at 50.2 v expectations of 51.2, still expanding albeit slowly.

Category: Markets

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4 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (October 4, 2013)”

  1. rd says:

    The world’s financial players are going on the working assumption that the US has adults at the steering wheel and they won’t crash the car. They can’t conceive of an alternative universe.

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/10/04/bill-gross-larry-fink-on-u-s-default-of-course-it-wont-happen/

    That is why the markets haven’t reacted.

  2. postpartisandepression says:

    So who is it the equity markets think is going to blink Boehner or Obama? If Obama blinks and gives in he is toast.

    There was a lot of talk when democrats were in charge of everything about them using the “nuclear option” and how bad that would be for our democracy and that the republicans would punish them if they did that when they got the majority. And that was only in response to a rule change that would have taken away the ability of 40 senators to block legislation in the senate without actually having to filibuster.

    Isn’t what the house republicans are doing a real “nuclear option” and yet we don’t hear the press talking about the dire consequences of this. We didn’t think Boehner woudl actually take the chance of shutting down the government either and he did.

  3. SecondLook says:

    the Nasdaq hit a new 52-week high

    March 10th, 2000, the Nasdaq closes at 5048.62

    I do think that eventually that index will pass its historical (non adjusted) high. Inflation if nothing else guarantees that.
    The only question, which decade…

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