Succinct Summations week ending October 18, 2013.

Positives:

1. Default Avoided: A last minute deal was cut, and after 16-days, the government reopened.
2. Russell 2000 (small cap), S&P400 mid cap and S&P500 large-caps hit all-time highs.
3. 99 S&P500 companies reported Q3 earnings, 60.6% beat guidance (vs 52% last week + 66.5% in Q2).
4. Gasoline prices are down 11% from their YTD highs
5. Google joined Priceline in the $1,000 club.
6. Chinese GDP increased 7.8%, accelerating for the first time in three quarters.
7. MBA refi apps rose 3.3%, up for 5th straight week to 2 month highs
8.Philly Fed came in at 19.8 v expectations of 15.
9. Beige book indicated fed saw modest to moderate growth
10. European stocks rose for a seventh straight day, their longest streak this year.
11. Stoxx Europe 600 is at its highest level since 2008.
12. Sorry Bears: Despite all the political wrangling + can kicking, the world didn’t end, and markets hit new all-time highs.

Negatives:

1. The government was shut down for 16 days; Treasury almost defaulted on its debt.
2. Fitch put U.S. credit rating on negative watch.
3. Government re-opened, but we have a few more months before we are once again listening to yahoos named Yaho and creeps named Cruz.
4. Dollar index breaks below 80; Following the worst week in a month, the US$ gets slammed to the lowest levels since February
5. The NAHB housing index fell to 55, from 58 in September.
6. UK still dealing with sticky inflation as September CPI up 2.7%,
7. MBA refi apps 60% off of the peak in May
8. Of 99 companies in S&P 500 reporting Q3 earnings Only 38% are exceeding revenue estimates vs 45% in Q2.
9. Initial unemployment claims came in at 358k v expectations of 335k.
10. Empire manufacturing index fell to 1.52 in October, down from 6.29 in September.

Thanks, Batman

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Succinct Summations of the Week (10/18/13)”

  1. RW says:

    The only long-term negative about #4 is it might make your next European vacation a little more expensive. Virtually everything else that matters, from export competitiveness to job creation, becomes net positive when the $USD is cheaper.

  2. Bob is still unemployed   says:

    > 99 S&P500 companies reported Q3 earnings, 60.6% beat guidance (vs 52% last week + 66.5% in Q2).

    I know you specifically mention “guidance” in your post but, if I may, I’d like to use your post as a springboard about something I’ve oft pondered….

    When a company does not do well in a quarter, it is characterized as ≈the company missed earnings estimates≈, meaning that the company’s performance and the estimates of that performance by analysts differed.

    What I don’t understand is why the blame always seems to be put on the company (“the company missed earnings estimates”).

    Shouldn’t the people (i.e., the wall street analysts) who made those incorrect estimates be the ones who receive the blame for being wrong? It was the analysts who created those estimates, it was the analysts who, after analyzing the company’s data, proffered those estimates.

    If the estimates are wrong, don’t blame the company for not meeting the estimates, blame the analysts for a bad forecast.

    There, I feel better now. :)

  3. Molesworth says:

    The yahoo you named is Yoho.
    But here’s the dealio: He really is representing his constituents.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/debt-ceiling-deniers-ted-yoho-district-2013-10

    One wonders what would have happened if the CSA has won. Might we all be more content as 2 separate countries? Illegal immigrants (aka slaves) from South USA and conservative Californians moving to Florida?

  4. [...] Awesome A succinct summary of what happened this week – Barry Ritholtz [...]

  5. b_thunder says:

    “99 S&P500 companies reported Q3 earnings, 60.6% beat guidance (vs 52% last week + 66.5% in Q2).”

    60% “beat?” interesting… does anyone calculate how many of them earned LESS Y/Y in the most recent quarter? And how many earned less in the past 12 months than in the preceding 12 months? And of those, how many are up over 20% YTD? I can name a few. What I cannot say is when this charade is going to end and when “the market” will cease being pulled by momentum algos, “fast money” junkies and CNBC talking heads.
    Because while the focus of the media on who “beat” and who “missed,” when the actual EPS are down Y/Y and the stock prices are up 20%, you better pay attention to the Schiller’s CAPE. It may give you some hints about the risk vs reward in the current market.