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Weakest Part of Presidential Cycle

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 3, 2013 @ 11:30 am In Cycles,Investing,Markets | Comments Disabled

Market risk: Weakest part of Presidential Cycle starts in mid 2013 (Jul/Aug peak)

click for ginormous chart
Weakest part of Presidential Cycle [1]
Source: Merrill Lynch

 

From Merrill:

2013 is the first year of a new Presidential Cycle. The first quarter of the first year of the cycle is down 1.33% on average (1Q in 2013 bucked this trend), but the weakest period of the Presidential Cycle is from a July/August Year 1 peak to a September Year 2 (mid-term election year) low. The average decline over this period is 4.31%. With the rally in September, 2013 is bucking this weaker Presidential Cycle period so far.

 
 
Source:
Market Analysis: Monthly chart portfolio of global markets
Stephen Suttmeier
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 01 October 2013


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