Okay, so here is the deal: We have no report of the NFP data today.

The net impact of this? Nothing.
Total loss to the investment community? Nada.
Actual impact to the economy? Zilch.

There are two things we need to understand about this report: The first is what makes it significant; the second is the impact to your investments.

As we have detailed over and over again, any single monthly datapoint is hardly significant. What matters is the long term trend in employment — is the economy creating jobs or is it losing them? This refers to the trend, not any single noisy month. Most of the time, its fairly innocuous. At major turning points, it suggests either an expansion ending, and potential recession; or at the other end, a recession coming to an end and the eventual recovery. Both of these events will be reflected in consume rsentiment, retail sales and of course, corporate earnings.

The second detail is the impact of NFP on your investments. If you are a HFT, then this is a big data point, one that will give your algos a run for their money. If you are a long term investor, the monthly employment situation seems to be lots of noise, with very little signal.

So while the usual suspects will trip over themselves trying to explain the horror we face from this missing datapoint, you should be aware that it is far less important than is commonly claimed — unless you have 14 hours of airtime to fill each day.

BLS report is out at 8:30 am  . . .  Nope.



NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point (February 4th, 2011)

Contextualizing the NFP Data (April 1st, 2011)

An Unusually Unusual NFP Payroll Day! (June 3rd, 2011)

THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013)

“What’s Your NFP Number?” [Don't have one]  (August 2nd, 2013)

Category: Employment, Philosophy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Yay! Its a No-NFP Non Farm Payrolls Friday !”

  1. pielou says:

    if (NFP)
    // must implement the NULL case. this will crash.

  2. DeDude says:

    The data not being available this morning is not a big deal. Data not being collected and never becoming available is a much bigger deal. What will hurt us in the long-term (months rather than days of shut-down) will be deterioration in quality of data. That should scare anybody who’s acts and opinions are data-driven.