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Balenthiran 17.6 Year Cycle

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 1, 2013 @ 12:00 pm In Cycles,Markets | Comments Disabled


Source: 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle [1]

 

Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran [1]:

“My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle length of 17.6 years. I have called this cycle the Balenthiran Cycle and demonstrate how the intermediate turning points match stock market behavior going back to the early 1900s and extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap of the next secular bull market to 2035 and subsequent secular bear market to 2053.”

A few caveats: The 17.6 year cycle has been bantered about for a long time by various people. (See “previous” below).

Second, I would add is that cycles can be interrupted by external events — like Bailouts, QE, etc.

Last, the world changes over time, and I doubt that any oscillation period dependent upon humans would stay all that consistent over decades and centuries.

 

 

 

Previously:

Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End? [2]  (February 4th, 2013)

Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude [3] (April 25th, 2013)

Economic Cycles and Investing [4] (December 28th, 2011)

Psy Cycle (Updated) [5] (December 20th, 2011)

The 56 Year Benner Cycle [6]  (August 19th, 2010)

Art Cashin on Secular Cycles [4] (July 8th, 2009)


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/balenthiran-cycle/

URLs in this post:

[1] 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/2013/05/secular-bear-market-vs-cyclical-bull.html

[2] Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End?: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/is-the-secular-bear-market-ending/

[3] Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/bull-markets-since-1871-duration-and-magnitude/

[4] Economic Cycles and Investing: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/art-cashin-on-secular-cycles/

[5] Psy Cycle (Updated): http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/psy-cycle-updated/

[6] The 56 Year Benner Cycle: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/the-56-year-benner-cycle/

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