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Merrill’s Secular Road Map Projects S&P 500 2300 in 2017

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 21, 2013 @ 12:00 pm In Cycles,Technical Analysis | Comments Disabled

S&P 2300? Give It Four Years: Ritholtz Chart
secular measured breakout [1]
Source: BAML


It took more than 13 years, but the S&P 500 managed to eclipse its 2007 highs of 1576 earlier this year. This move takes it out of a long term trading range, and according to the Technical Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, marks a transition to a new secular bull market.

Some folks might disagree with that characterization. The arguments against are that one cannot tell for sure (and certainly not this soon) after new highs if they are false breakout or not; they may not stick if earnings fall or rates rise. Further, given the Fed’s role in driving stock prices, once “the Taper” begins, all bets are off as to whether we stay in the new trading range above SPX 1576.

Note that the false breakout was hellish for traders in the 1970s . . .


Continues here [2]





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[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/secular-measured-breakout.png

[2] Continues here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/s-p-2300-give-it-four-years-ritholtz-chart.html

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