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Terry Jeffrey, Hack Extraordinaire (Fun with Numbers Again)

Posted By Invictus On December 7, 2013 @ 3:45 pm In Bad Math,Data Analysis,Economy,Employment,Financial Press,Really, really bad calls | Comments Disabled

@TBPInvictus here.

In yet another stunning display of journalistic malpractice, Terry Jeffrey put out the following piece after last Friday’s NFP release:

 

Screen Shot 2013-12-07 at 10.27.03 AM [1]

 

Because it suited his (political) purpose, Jeffrey jumped on the Household Survey; looking at the Establishment Survey would not have provided such a dramatic headline. Indeed, it would have provided, for him, no usable headline at all.

What Jeffrey seized on – a 338K gain over the month in government employees (41% of the 818K!!!) – fails to take into account that the previous month, when the Household Survey flagged a decline of 735K, 507K of those (a whopping 69%!!!) were government employees (interestingly, he did not report on that). That was, you know, when we had that government shutdown thing going on. These numbers are shown in the table immediately below. So the gain in November was essentially a reversal of the loss in October due to the government shutdown. This is exactly the same type of bullshit we see periodically with Reagan’s Million Jobs in One Month Miracle [2]. One quick look under the hood and it all falls to pieces.

Screen Shot 2013-12-07 at 11.48.53 AM [3]

I hope to God that Terry Jeffrey never identifies himself as a journalist. I’d hope, rather, that he refers to himself as a charlatan or a montebank, devoid of any integrity whatsoever.

See previously: Makers and Takers [4]

 

 


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/12/fun-with-numbers-again/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screen-Shot-2013-12-07-at-10.27.03-AM.png

[2] Reagan’s Million Jobs in One Month Miracle: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/08/reagans-million-jobs-month-revisited/

[3] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screen-Shot-2013-12-07-at-11.48.53-AM.png

[4] Makers and Takers: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/makers-and-takers/

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