This is from a bigger project I am working on.

I found it interesting that even thought Gold hit its peak in 2011, it did not have a negative year until 2013:







Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

17 Responses to “Gold Charts: 2000-Present, 2011, ’12, ’13”

  1. ByteMe says:

    The question is: why now?

  2. Ponchovilla says:

    Amazon has the answer to all of your gold worries both real and imagined.
    End of the World 2012 Gold Plated Mayan Coin 1 Troy OZ
    by PuriTEST 6 customer reviews Price: $4.92
    Now is the best time to buy based on “fundamentals”

  3. b_thunder says:

    It’s difficult for me to imagine what else can be said (or plotted on a chart) about gold that’s not yet been said on numerous occasions by a number of “experts.”
    Please don’t keep us guessing, hurry up with your project. Not least because the longer you wait the more time gold gets to become in 2014 what Best Buy was in 2013.

  4. Arequipa01 says:

    I believe I made the only mention of Chala, Peru on this blog back in 2010- Chinese buying gold from the informal mining systems in southern Peru. Well, the Peruvian State finally decided to do something about it (horse has fled the barn and swam back and forth between Ica and Shanghai about twenty times), which I read as a sign that the bottom for gold will come this year- near 970. Watch for it. Also, if you aren’t reading Martin Armstrong on gold (and other things), you’re cheating yourself.

    • Correct me if I am wrong but hasn’t he been dead wrong on equities ?

      I dont recall his bond forcasts

      • Arequipa01 says:

        As far as I know he went bullish on equities in 2011. Re bonds, he’s been anticipating higher rates. Please allow me to note that my comments on his views are my own and not authoritative. As far as I understand his POV, the main thesis is that we will be seeing a trend away from public to private assets- that is, bonds to equities, for example.

        Regarding Armstrong as a ‘guru’, his views are not received wisdom from on high. They are interesting positions with which to ‘dialogue’.

      • ByteMe says:

        Even a blind squirrel will eventually find an acorn….?

  5. Arequipa01 says:

    Mr. Ritholtz, have a very happy new year, full of blessings and joys for you and yours.

  6. sellstop says:

    Oh, goody! Gold!

    Here is another chart I came across a few days ago. I can’t remember where I found it, unfortunately.


  7. A. Cy Lum says:

    For too many reasons (listed everywhere) gold is an emotion-laden commodity, fraught with dark conspiracies perpetrated by: [insert fave villain(s) here].

    Looking into 2014 my thoughts are centred on catalysts which will move gold up — it is a short list.

    As for short term metrics, for its bottom I keep in mind mining costs/oz, Rises, I find, are predicated on Open Interest, especially, if not exclusively, on moves by the bullion banks. (A charting service, McCllelan brought this correlation to light twice this year).

    A. Cy Lum

    PS For the start of this year I’m contemplating the value of noise. Yes, value, yes noise; if it moves the market — effect — it must be considered — cause — within the dynamic of price action.

  8. Spyfrat says:

    just sharing… The parabolics in my experience is one powerful chart pattern ever. The mother of all.

  9. ch says:


    What is going on with gold prices is a breakdown in gold derivative markets. It shadows what was going on with housing in 2005-07 and as such should be watched.

    Gold is a fractionally-reserved asset. When the underlying collateral supplies start drying up (Venezuela asks for their gold back at the peak 2011, kicking off the breakdown in gold derivative mkts…Germany follows in 2012, China 2013, etc.), the reaction should be two-fold given the structure of the gold market:

    1. Leverage in the gold system should increase – which it has, to 38-year highs on the COMEX:

    2. Gold derivative prices (COMEX, LBMA – the “price of gold” commonly quoted) should drop as falling collateral supplies lead to the need to reduce the claims outstanding on that collateral.

    What is going on in gold is not dissimilar to what was going on in housing hinting at big trouble coming:

    –There is a growing shortage of good collateral – then it was a falling supply highly qualified borrowers, now it is physical gold.

    –Given that shortage of qualified borrowers , at first the housing market responded by increasing leverage – subprime, then Alt-A, then finally NINJA loans. Similarly, in 2011-2012, at first the gold market responded by increasing leverage – gold claims outstanding at major Western exchanges LBMA & COMEX.

    –Once the systemic leverage in housing had been expanded as far as it could (NINJA loans) in a vain attempt to support the derivative price in question (home prices), then home prices began to fall. Similarly, once leverage in the gold market got so high that even our friends the Germans asked for their gold back in late 2012/early 2013, then the only thing left was for the price of the derivative (gold futures) to collapse, which it did in 2013.

    Last time, in order to stem the fall in home prices & resultant collapse in the global financial system, the Fed had to take their balance sheet from $800B to $4T (& still rising.) I suspect the outcome this time will be even greater for gold: ‘… if the sovereign bond fails, a “forty story building” of derivatives collapses. Stick gold at much higher prices under it and the building holds up.’

    Most financial types & pundits don’t understand what the collapse in gold is telling them.

    Nor have they noticed that China has proposed a gold trade standard whereby offshore yuan balances will be able to be exchanged for physical gold purchased in Shanghai. Despite what Krugman et al say about the practicalities of a gold standard, the Chinese apparently don’t think much of Krugman. They are moving forward with evaluating the establishment of one.

    Stay tuned. I suspect that so-called “gold bugs” will likely get the last laugh in the same way that holders of subprime CDS’ got the last laugh in the housing bubble. But only the gold bugs that hold physical. And you won’t know who they are b/c it is possible the price needs to rise so high to fix the system that they won’t be advertising what they have…