Click for larger chart
Source: JPM Guide to the Markets (updated by me)


For today’s chart, I wanted to look at something unusual: the intra-year pullbacks of the past few decades.

As this chart (via JPMorgan Chase & Co.) shows, there is an average market drawdown of 14.7 percent. That period includes a few whopper years. Even if we were to back out the outliers — remove the five biggest drawdowns (34 percent, 30 percent, 34 percent, 49 percent and 28 percent — average drawdown of 35 percent within the year), we still see an 11.5 percent average intra-year drop.

 Continues here

Category: Markets, Trading

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6 Responses to “S&P 500 Intra-year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns”

  1. dctodd27 says:

    Why don’t they show total return data? Showing price return only is, frankly, incomplete – and if you include dividends then two extra years (1994,2011) would be in positive territory. I don’t get how that made it past JPM’s QC, or frankly, their compliance department.

  2. [...] 2013 has been a pain-free year for equity investors.  (Big Picture) [...]

  3. dctodd27 says:

    I guess. If the point of the chart is to put intra-year drawdowns in context, though, it seems like dividends only reinforce their point. 27 out of 33 looks even better than 25 out of 33!

  4. 4whatitsworth says:

    Great chart! I wonder what a good odds maker would put the chances of a 10% or greater correction at next year.. Clearly much higher than 50/50.

    Also when I see charts like this I need to remind myself that you can start with a $100 go up a 100%=$200 then down 50% for a zero percent return.

  5. Frilton Miedman says:

    Give the secular nature of bulls & bears, I wonder what that chart looks like through the 60′s & 70′s, maybe I’ll crunch it when I have the chance.