I have an interesting chat with Morgan Housel:


Fool.com

Category: Media, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Morgan Housel: A Conversation With Barry Ritholtz”

  1. bigsteve says:

    Good interview. I have over the last five years started to look at investment statistically. It is good to see a professional money manager looking the same way. Right now my retirement savings are in a 457 plan with limited index funds and higher fees than I want to pay. After retirement in two years they will be transfer into an IRA with a range of low cost index funds to cover the over all market. You are so right no one but God really knows how an asset class or an individual stock or bond will do . I might play with a small bit of money in retirement buying stocks as a hobby but not the majority of the money.

  2. catman says:

    Thanks for the interview. Usual display of intelligence, attitude, and accent!

  3. Winchupuata says:

    Good interview.

  4. Willy2 says:

    Interesting interview. Although I still use the “Early 1930s” scenario. And that still makes me a bear.

    - ZIRP is NOT the result of FED policy !!!! So, they can’t unwind any ZIRP. ZIRP was imposed upon the US by a force called “Mr. Market”.
    - The FED has bought ~ 30 to 40% of all the 20+ year T-bonds and that means the FED has painted itself into a corner. And the FED WILL be forced to sell T-bonds. forcing rates even higher.

    • I’m not sure ZIRP was forced on the world by Mr. Market — unless we accept the Fed has zero control and no power.

      • Willy2 says:

        - The FED certainly does have some (!!!) power but it’s outnumbered by the rest of the world. “Operation Twist’ in 2011 worked because Mr. Market was willing to cooperate. But in 2013 the FED bought some $ 85 billion worth of T-bonds each month and rates went up anyway.
        - In the early 1960s the FED also executed the first “Operation Twist” in an attempt to push rates lower but rates went up anyway.
        - The USD is not only the currency of the US, but also the world’s reserve currency. So, the FED is NOT only up against ~300 million US citizens, but up against ~7 billion people world wide. If all those 7 billion people say “Sell T-bonds” then (long term) US interest rates WILL go through the roof, no matter what the FED or don’t do.
        - Did you take a look at the TIC report produced by the FED ? According to my info foreigners have started to reduce their purchases of T-bonds. (That’s why the USD weakened in the last say 4 to 5 months).
        - In EVERY “Post bubble credit contraction” (after 2007, 1929 & 1873) short term rates went down to a couple of basispoints. Because all market participants want to reduce their price risk and therefore reduce the maturity of their bonds, hence falling rates. But in 1873 there wasn’t a FED around. So, the FED didn’t push short term “into the cellar” in 1873, it was doen by Mr. Market.