Here are my forecasts for 2014, guaranteed to not be wrong:

Category Forecast
Dow Jones Industrials No idea
S&P500 WTF are you asking me for?
10 Year Bond Could not fathom a guess
Emerging Markets Who knows?
Fed Fund Rates Haven’t a clue
US Housing Market That’s a really good question
Inflation Not a clue
GDP Yes, we will probably have a GDP
Unemployment Thhhhpppptttt?
ECB Rates $%^&*!
Growth in China XXXX
European Sovereign Debt Hmmm, interesting . . .
2014 Election outcome HTF should I know?
Abenomics & Japan Domo Arigato
Possibility of Recession in 2014 Possibility & Probability are 2 different things

That’s the most honest set of predictions you will read this season.

(This was part of a prior piece I wrote for Bloomberg earlier this month)

Category: Humor, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

25 Responses to “My Annual Predictions for the Coming Year, 2014 Edition”

  1. ilsm says:

    Happy New Year!

  2. lburgler says:

    Don’t people pay you precisely to be a prosopopoeia for their frustrated daddy/master fetishes? There are a lot of people who did not get the memo that God committed suicide on the Cross thousands of years ago and/or (if you’re Jewish) was never alive in heaven anyway. You quite literally need to be their stand-in, their arbiter of standards, their seer of the truth. If not you, somebody else will be.

    • First, kudos on the use of the term “prosopopoeia” — that’s not how I think of προσωποποιία, but you correctly identify my goal of a shift in perspective via a stylistic device.

      Thats what people READ me for.

      What people actually PAY me for is to manage risk and deploy capital in an objective, unemotional fashion.

      As to the Daddy/Master fetishes, I have some excellent links on that but they are NSFW.

      • jaysan says:

        “Not suitable/safe for work (NSFW) is Internet slang or shorthand. Typically, the NSFW tag is used in e-mail, videos, and on interactive discussion areas (such as Internet forums, blogs, or community websites) to mark URLs or hyperlinks which contain material such as nudity, violence, pornography or profanity, which the viewer may not want to be seen accessing in a public or formal setting such as at work.”

        Could you send a private email?

  3. VennData says:

    We may not have GDP.

    My predictions that Obama is about to Socialize us into a Communist state will probably come true this year, and the stock markets will drop below his 666 low, before quadrupling the week after I finally buy in during his impeachment, which will happen any day now, especially for that AP scandal…

    And I, my powerful ego, and even more powerful ideology will be intact.

  4. [...] Ritholtz, the brains behind the Big Picture blog, is out with his 2014 global market and economic forecasts, and they are brilliant [...]

  5. I just fired my fortune teller. You’re hired. “Shaddup and take my money!”

    Happy 2014!

  6. NoKidding says:

    What, no mention of Gold!?

    You’re just afraid to admit you have no clue about PMs and where they’re going.


  7. [...] The only predictions you need for 2014.  (Big Picture) [...]

  8. [...] Ritholtz, the brains behind the Big Picture blog, is out with his 2014 global market and economic forecasts, and they are [...]

  9. jib10 says:

    Years ago I was working at a software startup and a senior manager was tasked with making out the next years schedule. It was an impossible task since we were relatively cutting edge and relied on other companies to get their relatively cutting edge work done in order for our work to be shipped. His scheduled was full of TBD’s that he kept pestering me, as senior dev, to fill out with dates. Unable to properly communicate why what he was doing was impossible I finally resorted to breaking into his desktop computer (pre-laptop) and changing auto-correct in Word so that anytime he typed “TBD”, it would auto-correct to “When monkeys fly out of my ass”.

    I thought it was pretty funny but he was less amused than I.

  10. Mike in Nola says:


    Be Warned that I am saving these predictions so that we can see how you did in a year.

  11. microcap says:

    Can’t believe your idiotic prediction of XXXX for the Chinese growth rate, when that’s clearly the Italian growth rate.

    Come on BR, get with the program!

  12. [...] My Annual Predictions for the Coming Year, 2014 Edition | The Big Picture [...]

  13. boveri says:

    Finally, predictions I can count on. Thanks

  14. [...] and Dr. Daniel Crosby annihilate the 2014 predictions game.  (TBP) and [...]

  15. [...] Barry Ritholtz provides some outstanding predictions for 2014. [...]

  16. [...] l’Union Européenne, les impôts vont augmenter et des gens vont mourir. Il y a aussi cet opus tordant et en même temps le plus honnête des prévisions 2014 (économiques) [...]

  17. [...] The only predictions you need for 2014.  (Big Picture) [...]

  18. jaysan says:

    “Do not pay attention to any, and I do mean any, forecasters (that goes for both stock and bond forecasters) because none knows where the market is going. They either only think they do (and should know better), or they are getting paid a lot of money to pretend they do.”

    - Larry Swedroe

  19. [...] If you still don’t believe me, read this somewhat “fruitily worded” blog from the world renowned Barry Ritholtz. [...]

  20. [...] in 2014. If you absolutely must have predictions for the next year, then I recommend you check out Barry Ritholtz’s annual list. But if you are interested in something more useful than predictions, I suggest taking a look at [...]

  21. [...] If you still don’t believe me, read this somewhat “fruitily worded” blog from the world renowned Barry Ritholtz. [...]