Category: Employment, Think Tank

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate”

  1. bigsteve says:

    I have predicted that when the boomers retired a serious hole in the labor market would developed. The generation following the boomers is smaller .The Great Recession may have delayed labor shortages but it will happen as the economy recovers. I am a boomer and only about two years from retiring. Because of the rules for Social Security and a very good pension after that I would be paying to work. But even if that was not true how long will this 60+ year old body be able to keep laboring. We really need immigration reform. That is the only way I see not having labor shortages here in the U.S.

  2. mllange says:

    The Fed finally noticed? The blogosphere has been all over decline in labor force participation and corresponding increase in disability claims for years now (see Mish Shedlock, Karl Denniger, ZeroHedge, etc.).

  3. gman says:

    We are in a 40 year bear mkt for labor at anything below the 80 percentile.

    Labor shortages in spite of massively declining real wages over decades?

  4. tominwisc says:

    It’s good to see a discussion at this level of analytical detail. I found this to be particularly interesting:

    “The decline in the participation rate in the last one-and-a-half years… is entirely due to retirement.”

    However, when it comes to looking at the causes of higher worker “discouragement” — both among those who want to work and those who do not — I’m surprised that Fujita and other analysts haven’t investigated the impact of how labor is compensated. As the real purchasing power of the minimum wage goes down, the availability of employer-provided healthcare falls off, and the probability of receiving a reliable pension drops, it seems reasonable to assume that the marginal propensity to work will decline too. Or to put it more concretely, if your choice is to work unpredictable hours at low pay at Walmart, or to spend your time doing work as a handyman, dress designer, musician or caregiver, wouldn’t you choose the latter? I’d like to see that research.