My afternoon train reading:

• Is This Bull Cyclical or Secular? (WSJ)
• Security Check Firm Said to Have Defrauded U.S. (NY Times) too bad they didnt see A Wonderfully Simple Heuristic to Recognize Charlatans (Farnam Street)
• Active is the New Passive (Reformed Broker)
• Russian hackers’ hands in cyber espionage against Western energy interests (Washington Post) see also Clean Tech Is Not Dead—In Fact, It’s Booming Like Never Before (Slate)
• Why Bitcoin Matters (DealBook)
• Ezra Klein and the early-mover disadvantage (Columbia Journalism Reviewsee also The Six Things That Make Stories Go Viral Will Amaze, and Maybe Infuriate, You (New Yorker)
• 5 critical retirement investing mistakes to avoid (MarketWatch)
• Obama Recovery Fails to Resonate as Americans Left Behind (Bloomberg) see also Pining for LBJ, We Got Christie (Bloomberg)
• Independent board says NSA phone program should end (Washington Postsee also Watchdog Report Says N.S.A. Program Is Illegal and Should End (NY Times)
• In U.S., 67% Dissatisfied With Income, Wealth Distribution (Gallupsee also Economic mobility hasn’t changed in a half-century in America, economists declare (Washington Post)

What are you reading?


Nest Becomes Google’s Latest Billion Dollar Acquisition

Source: Statista


Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

16 Responses to “10 Thursday PM Reads”

  1. Iamthe50percent says:

    Secular or Cyclical is a false dichotomy. All markets are cyclical. The long term cycles we call secular trends are still cyclical. Where is the Roman grain Market? Oh, it crashed really bad around 500 AD.

    We have just seen the second major drop of the 7generational cycle. The first crash was the “tech wreck” circa 2000. The bank crash was the second. Now we should see twenty years of general rise until the banks discover a new fantastic guaranteed to never fail it’s different this time financial innovation that will make everyone rich without work. At least it’s guaranteed as long as government stops regulating and gets out of the way of the market. Or so we will be told.

      • Iamthe50percent says:

        I’ve got to respect your informed opinion. I assume you mean you disagree with paragraph two and we are still on the down slope.

      • No

        I see there is a difference between a cyclical and secular cycles

      • rd says:

        I think the big questions whether we are in a stair tread or riser period (see link for chart):

        The market has been essentially flat since 2000, similar to the 60s-70s, 30s-40s, and 1910s. Are we now in a secular bull with an additional 300%+ rise in the offing over the next 20 years before the next big 50% break? Or are we going to revisit the 2000s’ lows before kicking off in a new secular bull?

        I suspect that we are not in the big secular bull yet because I think we still have unfinished business to restructure the financial markets,economy, and political systems to build them for long-term success. That process got disrupted and delayed over the past 4 years, particularly by the extraordinary interventions by the Fed. But that is just an opinion, not a prediction.

      • Derektheunder says:

        That article was written back in 2009. If they knew where we would be today at that point in time, I wonder whether they would consider it secular or cyclical.

  2. willid3 says:

    what? you mean that if the government (or any one else for that matter) pays some body to do some thing, that its possible they will either say they did it (and didnt) or do such a bad job that its hard to tell that they didnt do it or that they did a crappy job?

    • ilsm says:

      The concept of contracting out background investigations (BI) is at best wrong headed at worst corrupt.

      Security Check Firm: Likely doing a services contract, which are supposed to be “performance based”, and reordered using competitive contracting process. I cannot imagine what North American Industrial Classification Code.

      However, services contract shall be services, nonpersonal and not provide inherently governmental functions.

      Further, since services contract have to be performance based the Federal Acquisition Regulation requires the agency to have a strong quality assurance plan………

      If a BI is not an inherently government function then I guess we can take the government’s franchise on mass destruction away, too!

      OPM is far superior to DoD. The services contracts in DoD ignore the FAR and buy labor hours with no link to “performance”.

  3. willid3 says:

    home ownership? maybe not all that?

    seems Germany didnt follow our lead there. and maybe it worked better?

  4. RW says:

    An important point in light of R-square’s extensive use in risk/return modeling, goodness of fit, etc.

    On R-squared and economic prediction

    …if what you think you learned in your statistics class was that you should always judge how good a model is by looking at the R-squared of a regression, then I hope that today you learned something new.

  5. rd says:

    Apparently corporate leaders are starting to figure out that underpaid or laid off workers do not make good customers. Who would have thought?

  6. farmera1 says:

    I fail to see the problem. Eventually the wealthy few (like the Waltons 4 family members worth over $30 billion each) will inherit everything. Then they can spend that unearned wealth to gain even more power and money. After all the Supreme’s have decided unlimited political giving by corporations is aok. What could possibly be the problem.

  7. S Brennan says:

    Please warn me when a link is an EZ-rah Klein “I gotta look like I am serious thinker” by pretending to be a “liberal” who trashes Democratic presidents article.

    I mean…the guy already got his seal of approval by writing pieces to try to convince “liberals” that invading Iraq was a hot idea and they shouldn’t “seriously’ oppose the war.

    And who could forget EZ-rah Klein’s article on how the nationwide organized crackdown on Occupy Wall Street was good because it would actually focus the public on the need for reform. Yeah, right EZ-rah Klein.

    Like a broken clock, EZ-rah Klein gets it right…only by accident.

    As somebody who was alive at the time, I don’t think any other president in the history of the nation could have passed AND EXECUTED the Civil Rights Bill which ended Jim Crow and Medicare which stopped poor senior citizens from being left in the street to die in agony. Nothing EZ-rah Klein has ever done, nor anybody EZ-rah Klein idolizes [including himself], could lift LBJ’s shoestring.

    Mistakes, yeah, plenty, but the last Prez who rose to that position to do good.

    • rd says:

      All of Ezra Klein’s examples are things LBJ threatened to do, but did not actually execute.

      In Christie’s case, his staff did things without actually threatening to do them. They created a huge traffic jam as payback but without getting any benefit.

  8. VennData says:

    Mike Huckabee: Republicans are fighting a war for women!

    Just like those Randian, Free Marketers the Koch Brothers who believe that selfishness is what makes America great… and little-guy GOP voter thinks that means the Koch’s are fighting for them.

    Just THINK about that for a minute GOP voter.