One of the more interesting aspects about the market in 2014 is how much it has managed to defy expectations. Consensus has been consistently wrong; indeed, it seems that any time there is an agreement of sorts on just about any issue, the opposite has happened.

Merrill Lynch’s legendary strategist Bob Farrell put together 10 Rules for Investing, and his rule #9 states that “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.” That certainly seems to be the case so far in 2014.

Consider the following cherry picked anecdotes as, well, not evidence, but support of Farrell’s dictum:  Continues Here



Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls, Rules

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Beware Consensus: When to Ignore the Investment Experts”

  1. DrFish says:

    my anecdotes tell me the vast majority is bullish

  2. Willy2 says:

    - But we have seen the bottom in interest rates in mid 2012 !!!! Perhaps we’ll see rates go a bit lower (e.g. 2.5% or 2% for the TNX) but the overall trend is – from now onwards – & IMO clearly UP !!!!
    - It sounds like one B. Ritholtz is now a bull ??? Or a “cautious” bull ?
    - Since the start of 2014 a number of my (credit market) indicators did make a turn for the worst.
    - Consensus ??? The consensus I see is still too bullish. (See above).

  3. [...] at The Big Picture blog of Barry Ritholtz he has a piece along the same lines warning about consensus, including a reference to the 10 rules of investing which includes Rule [...]

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.