Econ recov
Source: Crestmont Research

 

Ed Easterling, president of Crestmont Holdings LLC, created the chart above comparing various economic recoveries. He selected those that followed similar annual declines in real gross domestic product.

As the chart shows, the present economic recovery is the most sluggish we have seen.

Continues here

 

Category: Data Analysis, Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Comparing Recoveries: Real GDP”

  1. atswimtwobirds says:

    Public sector jobs cuts. it must be unprecedented this far into a recovery to be still cutting public sector jobs.

    • 4whatitsworth says:

      Just looking at the total number of jobs is meaningless without looking at the total cost of these resources. It would be like looking at the number of shares outstanding without looking at the cost of those shares (useless and incomplete data). In truth public sector payroll and benefits are higher than they have ever been (this is clearly not the problem). In addition the public sector has expanded it’s scope and reach which slow up in the economic expansion numbers. Today’s business is stifled, there is a permit required for just about anything and the regulations to get anything done are frightening. Even the government struggles with their own regulations ask someone who has tried to build or repair a new bridge or road.

      • DeDude says:

        Never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.

        As Mike Donnelly points out there has been a remarkable public sector employment contraction unlike anything done before the GOP decided that getting rid of a democratic president is more important than economic recovery.

  2. MikeDonnelly says:

    Calculated risk does an interesting chart on Government employment (link here)

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

    At this point, government during George Bush’s term had hired a net 1 million workers. Obama by comparison has laid off 750,000. At an average paid income of $75,000 it is a loss of $130B annually, a significant hit to GDP.

  3. Angryman1 says:

    600,000 thousand jobs created in a month suggest something better than 2.3% GDP is going on. Remember, that final “real” GDP number will be revised quite a bit. Those past recoveries have had decades of revision.

  4. san_fran_sam says:

    The thing about coming out of a recession is that there is pent up demand. in the three prior recoveries charted, the US still had a manufacturing base to meet that pent up demand. Demand goes up, production goes up, people get hired. Today demand goes up, production goes up, people get hired… in China.

  5. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    Maybe this one is permanent.

    We used to have to compete with our fellow citizens/peers. Now, we have to compete with the Chinese and Indians.

    America on 3 a day. Good luck wit dat.

  6. constantnormal says:

    … considering the amount of stimulus that the Fed has poured into the economy, a recovery this weak is downright scary … the worriers are prolly correct to fear it could collapse at any moment …

    However, I would expect some sort of GDP downturn due to the rotten weather over a large chunk of the nation so far this year.  We won’t have a clear picture of what is happening until probably this fall … it will be interesting to watch Yellen, and see if she has the nerves of steel to continue cutting QE in the face of all the weather-related impact to the economy (and thus deferred production, for the most part), and count on the pushed-out production coming back in spades over the summer and into the fall.

    (if it works out like that — as I expect it would in a real recovery)

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