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How accurate is the groundhog?

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On February 2, 2014 @ 7:00 am In Bad Math,UnScience | Comments Disabled

Not so good – less than chance, in fact.

Approximately 90% of the time, Phil sees his shadow. Records indicate he’s right just 39% of the time — worse than a coin flip.

Phil and his ancestors have been doing this since 1887 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. -Wit & Wisdom [1]


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[1] Wit & Wisdom: http://witandwisdom.org/archive/20030217.htm

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