Succinct Summation of week ending February 14, 2014

Positives:

1. After a 6% pullback, the S&P 500 has rallied 7 days in a row and is less than 1% away from new all-time highs.
2. QQQ closed at a new 14-year high
3. Euro-zone GDP grew 0.3% in Q4 v 0.2% expected. This is the 3rd consecutive quarter of expansion.
4. Total earnings for the S&P 500 are on track to reach an all-time quarterly record.
5. The Market had its best week of the year
6. NFIB small business hiring plans rose to 12%, highest reading since September 2007.
7. Consumer confidence came in unchanged, but beating expectations.
8.  NFIB index of small-business optimism comes in at 94.1, a hair over expectations.
9. Greek 10-year yield at lowest levels since 2010.
10. Italian GDP grew 0.1% in Q4, the first expansion since 2011.

Negatives:

1. U.S. January manufacturing output fell 0.8%, biggest drop since 2009
2.  Retail sales fell 0.4%, v flat expectations. December’s #’s revised down to -0.1%, from 0.2%.
3. U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in January, economists were expecting a 0.3% rise.
4. Initial claims jump to 339k vs 330k expected.
5. Mortgage apps still not responding to rates down from recent highs. Purchase apps fell 5% w/o/w after dropping 3.8% last week  — nearing lowest levels since December 2012.
6. December JOLTS data = 3.99mm openings, down from 4.03mm in November.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 2.14.14”

  1. DarthVader'sMentor says:

    All of the positives are markets (“The Market had its best week of the year”), plans (“NFIB small business hiring plans”) and psychological indexes (“Consumer confidence came in unchanged, but beating expectations.”), but all of the negatives were hard operations and production numbers going down hill or “still not responding” (illogically?) to “rates down stimuli”.

  2. Bostonian says:

    If the context for determining what is positive and what is negative is looking forward to make an investment decision tomorrow, wouldn’t higher prices yesterday (Positive #1) be a negative?

    I would think that, all else equal, a lower S&P, not a higher one, would be more of an attractive positive if I was looking to convince people to get longer.

    Of course, if the context is to highlight what happened yesterday, and the speaker, or audience, is long, that #1 does belong as a positive. I suspect, however, that the intent is to help readers make a decisions about tomorrow, not bask in yesterday.

    • I think you misunderstand the entire purpose here:

      This weekly discussion is an exercise that forces me to look at both the positives and the negatives, yin and yang, both sides of the coin, week-in, week-out. As it turns out having now done (or edited) this for 5 years, one learns that every week, there are both positives and negatives.

      It is a very rare circumstance when all of the news leans one way or the other. My experience also tells me that when that happens, I am most likely to be thinking time to start thinking about swimming against the tide.

      This is not a post about investing; it is not even a news discussion; It is an exercise in psychology and objectivity.

    • DarthVader'sMentor says:

      Excellent points, Bostonian. To reinforce your point, even the comments on the market had no reference for any investment action, just that they were the highest of the year. Seems the author was not thinking about investing, just recounting the recent past or maybe it’s was just possible political bias emerging from within an otherwise financial blog.

  3. [...] A look back at the economic week that was.  (Bonddad Blog, Big Picture) [...]

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