Top of the workweek to you. Some reads for your St. Patrick’s Day enjoyment:

• Haunted by the Bull That Got Away (WSJ) see also U.S. Investors Have Not Run With Bull Market (NY Post)
• The U.S. Stock Market Is Expensive, and It Should Be (Philosophical Economics)
• Fedspeak Cheatsheet: What Are Fed Policymakers Saying (Real Time Economics) see also Fed Challenge: Pull Back Without Pulling the Rug Out (NY Times)
• The bull market turns five (Fidelity)

Continues here

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “10 Monday AM Reads”

  1. willid3 says:

    maybe this is why the middle class is disappearing? cause many struggle to get by and cant ‘join’ it any more?

    Irish amnesia?

  2. willid3 says:

    a real world test of ‘self’ regulation? and it was a big failure. why did we ever think that banks or others will not act in their self interest, knowing that they were unlikely to get caught out?

  3. hue says:

    Jony Ive Discusses Design Philosophy, Relationship with Steve Jobs, and Future of Apple (MacRumors) “So much has been written about Steve, and I don’t recognize my friend in much of it.” Begun, it has … Real-life ‘Doc Ock’ arm learns like a baby (The Verge)

    Malaysia Airlines Expands Investigation To Include General Scope Of Space, Time (The Onion) ‘Why Are We Even Here?’ Officials Probe

    Why Guinness is less Irish than you think (The Economist)

  4. rd says:

    An observation on stock market valuations that I just about never see made.

    Until the mid-1950s, the dividend yield on stocks were almost always higher than the 10-yr T-bond rate. In the mid 50s, the T-bond rate went above 4% but stocks did not decline to push their dividend yield up above that rate. Since then, stocks have almost always had their dividend yields lower than the 10-year T-bond rate, sometimes just a small fraction of it.

    It seems that there was a sea change in risk perception regarding stocks in the mid 1950s that has completely changed stock market pricing. I think one of the big outstanding questions in investing is if the perception that stocks should have dividend yields lower or higher than T-bonds can return. If perceptions should shift back to pre-1950s thinking at some point over the next couple of decades, then that would be a “black swan” event.

    I think this is what some of the tooth-gnashing over the Shiller CAPE value is really about as people try to tweak it to achieve a level of perfection that simply cannot exist as people are trying to compare two very different investing eras. Mean reversion on a grand century scale would imply a major re-pricing of stocks for an extended period of time that would be incomprehensible to today’s market participants. Does that mean it can’t happen? What about if we had a period of deflation with little or no GDP growth for a decade or more so corporate earnings did not rise?

  5. RW says:

    It’s Monday and guess who is confused about the economy again.

    Robert Samuelson Doesn’t Have Access to Government Data

    That wouldn’t be such a big problem if he didn’t write on economic issues. This time the problem affects his discussion of past and future efforts at boosting the economy.

    Samuelson seems to think that investment and consumption are depressed because of businesses and consumers fears about the economy. If he had access to the economic data, he would know that non-residential investment is almost back to its pre-recession share of GDP …

    …neither business investment nor consumption show any evidence of weakness due to pessimism. The obvious basis for continuing weakness is that housing construction is still depressed due to the overbuilding of the bubble years and continued high vacancy rates.