Category: Politics, Really, really bad calls, Think Tank, War/Defense

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

19 Responses to “10 Reasons Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”

  1. foobar says:

    This is great but where are the equivalents for Syria, Iraq, Venezuela, etc.

    • noncist says:

      As in Ukraine, oil is an underlying factor in all of these conflicts.

      Syria is a proxy war with Russia and the Persians on one side versus the West and the Arabs. It’s attracting extremists like moths to a flame. Syria would be a great place for oil pipelines like Ukraine.

      Right now, Iraq is basically the same cultural conflict as Syria (but more terrorism than open war) – Sunnis/Arabs and Shiites/Persians just can’t seem to get along. An oil pipeline has been built from Kurdistan through Turkey and another one has been agreed to through Jordan (tough luck Syria). The shit will really hit the fan if/when Kurdistan tries to become a sovereign nation, which may threaten the territorial integrity of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran.

      Venezuela is a popular uprising against an autocratic regime like Ukraine was awhile ago and Syria was a few years ago. Unfortunately, it’s a bit more like Syria than Ukraine, because the rebels don’t have any unifying figurehead or organized hierarchy that can negotiate. Venezuela has the resource curse of oil propping up its government to the detriment of its citizens. They should learn from countries who do this effectively (ie Saudi Arabia), but they would probably need the help of a major power like the US and that’s not going to happen since they’re more aligned with Cuba, Iran, and Russia. The conflict in Venezuela could be an opportunity for China to make a deal like the US has with Saudi Arabia actually.

  2. Stock Soup says:

    Okay, next guest author …

    2 Reason Barack Obama has no balls:

    1) He’s to young. If before becoming president if he had 12 years as a Senator, and 6 on the foreign affairs committee, he might have grown some.
    2) While Putin was cutting his teeth in the KGB, Obama was a community organizer.

    I am sure there are more reasons, maybe someone else can do 3 thru 10

    • VennData says:

      I am sure that you are a loyal Fox watcher. That is what I am sure of.

    • DeDude says:

      Yeah what a disaster – instead of acting out of testosterone poisoning and creating trillion dollar wars, he uses his brain and avoids them. What a loser – first he does nothing to prevent Russia from invading Georgia and now he failed to prevent them from invading the Crimean peninsula. Oh wait a minute Georgia was on someone else’s big strong manly ballified old-ass watch and the response was a bunch of weak ineffective “sanctions”. I guess there is a big unified bipartisan consensus that starting a war with Russia when it protects its strategic interests kind of requires a serious threat to our own strategic interest – its just that this consensus gets drowned out by the Fox noise machine whenever they see a black democrat in “their” white house.

    • ancientone says:

      Where were G. W. Bush’s balls when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008? You partisan putz!

      • Fred C Dobbs says:

        wasn’t the US Republican President involved in two domestic issues: the election (that gave us B.Obama) and the results of the foolish policy of permitting loans to borrowers who couldn’t or wouldn’t repay, and the international issues of ungrateful leaders in Iraq and Afghanistan who came to power as the result of American military deaths?

  3. 873450 says:

    Geography. Geography. Geography.

    Why does GOP keep saying Obama invited Putin to seize Crimea?

  4. Tim says:

    Excellent expanded insight…especially about the farmland/soil value, and oil recovery potential….and reason for unlikely US intervention.

    • noncist says:

      Thank you!

      That was a very insightful article, even though the author seems to have his own agenda.

      I wish Obama had more political courage, but he sadly seems to be more of a quiet consensus-builder than a world leader. On issues like foreign policy, healthcare, and the debt, he would be better served by confidently focusing on grand strategy than specific problems, but he seems to be either too risk averse or too cowed by the far right depictions of him as some kind of NWO sleeper agent to be bold. At least he’ll probably keep things from going too crazy even if he can’t lead the world.

  5. romerjt says:

    IMO “Ten Reasons” should include the over-all and long-standing policy of expanding NATO by signing up most of the former Warsaw Pact nations and threatening to put missiles in those countries. Ukraine was going to be next until the Russians got Yanukovych as president and took it off the track. His overthrow during the Olympics, which as Kissinger “confirms” on Charlie Rose, was hardly a coincidence should be seen as part of this problem. And you don’t have to know much Russian history or played the board game Risk to understand that the Ukrainian threat not to renew the lease of Savestapol, the only warm port was something the Russian could never allow at any cost.

    How did we get in the position making / supporting that threat? Can’t wait for the book.

    • lisnyk says:

      IMO “Ten Reasons” should include the over-all and long-standing policy of expanding NATO by signing up most of the former Warsaw Pact nations and threatening to put missiles in those countries. Ukraine was going to be next …

      —- not correct, Ukrainian Constitution prohibits joining any military organizations, but an Ammendment is being introduced now.

      And you don’t have to know much Russian history or played the board game Risk to understand that the Ukrainian threat not to renew the lease of Savestapol, ..

      —– It was renewed in 2010 for 25 years until 2042. Keep playing Risk board game…

      … the only warm port was something the Russian could never allow at any cost.
      — perhaps, but there is also Novorossiisk, so hardly the last place to have a Navy.

  6. rd says:

    Crimea was tacked onto Ukraine by Kruschkev in 1954 as a gift to his home country. Prior to that, it had generally been attached to Russia since the 1700s except when the Ottomans and British took it before Russia took it back. .

    Russians have generally viewed eastern Ukraine all the way to Kiev as historically a key part of the the Russian Empire for the past few centuries (longer than the US has had rights to Texas and California). Western Ukraine is vaguer with respect to its relationship with Russia.

    The US has its Monroe Doctrine. Cuba has been a flagrant exception to US domination of the Americas over the past century, but the Monroe Doctrine has been used to justify invasions of Grenada and Panama using similar rationales that Putin is using now.

    The huge battles of Stalingrad and Kursk were just east of Ukraine and Crimea. Russians (and the other various ethnic groups in the Soviet Union) spilled a lot of blood on Ukraine soil in WW II in losing it to the Germans in 1941 and then recapturing it in 1943 and 1944.

    Putin is a pretty nasty character but there is a lot of Russian culture that historically intertwined with Ukraine that makes it an emotional issue instead of just geopolitics and natural resources.

  7. rd says:

    Citigroup and the other TBTF banks brought the US and much of Europe to their knees in 2008. Putin had better be worried because Citigroup is gunning for him now that they have forecast Russia’s GDP will be cut to 1.0% growth because of the Ukraine crisis.

    Putin – we call on you to surrender now or we will sic the rest of the banks on you as well.

  8. Iamthe50percent says:

    The warm water Naval port argument doesn’t hold up. Russia had a long term lease on that base and was hardly threatened by Ukraine, whose army seems to be a bunch of sad sacks. We have a long term lease on Guantanamo in extremely hostile territory and are so confident in not losing it that we store prisoners there that are claimed to be too dangerous to be in prison on USA soil.

    It’s just pure old time imperialism. Czar Putin will next go after Lithuania and the Baltics with the claim they threaten Russia. Next Poland. Putin reminds me of Michael Corleone’s claim that he didn’t want to kill everyone, just his enemies.

    But no, we won’t do anything and I’m not sure we should. Is Ukraine worth WW III? I sure don’t know the answer.

    • thegonch says:

      Actually, the warm water port is the single biggest reason for taking Crimea. The last time the Ukrainian president was pro-Western, they refused to extend the lease expiring in 2017. The lease has since been extended to 2042, but Ukrainian governments have demonstrated no aversion to tearing up agreements signed by the “other side”.

      Taking back Crimea ensures no more lease negotiations.

      As for the rest of the Russians in Ukraine, isn’t in in Russia’s interest to leave them in Ukraine, with some greater level of autonomy? There is always a chance that the pro-Western factions, as disorganized as they are, will disappoint those who just want an end to chaos, and let the pro-Russian faction get back in charge.

  9. Mike Roberts says:

    When Leonid Brezhnev was in the middle of his General Secretary reign, I learned every one of these reasons in my high school Russian history classes (give or take a new name or two). “Warm water port” and “breadbasket” were nearly my simultaneous thoughts upon hearing of Putin’s actions. Quite amusing- “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”

  10. Biffah Bacon says:

    Stock Soup is in an awful hurry to get other peoples’ kids killed. Easy to talk about other peoples’ balls on the internet when you’re not the president. Shame on the Mc’s in Congress, too.

    There are some other aspects unaddressed in the slide show and comments that are potentially significant.
    -Russian Orthodox Church is part of the government and part of the Russian ethnic makeup-even during Communism. Serbia was defended by Russia because of shared Orthodox religion. They are the one true faith and heir to Christ’s kingdom due to the heresy of the Catholic church a thousand years ago.

    -WWII heritage was mentioned and it has been one of the key forces holding the country together in terms of the shared mythology among people, beyond the state propaganda. Same as the US “greatest generation” Tom Hanks Steve Spielbergathon. Currently the film Stalingrad is playing in 3d Imax at the mall and cross promotion is happening on tv with Enemy at the Gates showing and some love from the history and pentagon channels. It is a big deal.

    -Polish nationalism. No one seems concerned about Poland in these discussions, but that country is Catholic like the Ukrainian half of Ukraine, has been part of large scale negotiations between Russia and Germany in the past, and has a similar history of unrest with Russian dominance.

    -Poland as an under-tapped resource base has large reserves of coal, coal bed methane, and potentially recoverable liquid hydrocarbons in similar shale deposits that with hydrofracking could become important to the European economy in the short horizon. Eurozone could hopscotch east with fracking and cut Putin’s pipeline trump card, which Putin would like to preclude.

    -Face is finally a big one that nobody seems to address. Putin can’t afford to lose territory that is traditionally Russian because his constituency is if anything more corrupt and venal than the “stocksoup” jingoist nationalist position in America-his oligarch backers have killed politically inconvenient people before and would have few qualms about arranging Putin’s heroic demise and replacement. After the Winter Olympics, which was played here as a debacle by our media, Putin needs to shore up his overseas appearance as well as mitigate any fallout at home where his Judy Millers and Chris Cillizzas are selling a rosier view of these events.

    -Revolutions are coming. Modern Russia has inherited the vast array of ethnicities and language groups but no longer has the intensity of security apparatus or the ability to suppress them it once had. Maybe not a big deal for reindeer herders in Sakha but the former Silk Road routes across Eurasia are filled with -stans because they are easy to move across and with them comes disruption. Climate shift resulting in crop failures, crushing heat and cold waves, and declining infrastructure at home and saturated markets for oil, gas, timber and cool motorcycles for hipsters abroad spells trouble just like in Syria, Egypt, Sudan, etc.