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Jan 08 recovery severe downturns.png
Source: NYT

 

Floyd Norris discusses an upcoming milestone: A full recovery in employment to numerical (but not percentage) employment in the US:

“This seems likely to be the month when a new high is finally reached, ending a period that featured the largest drop in employment and the slowest recovery of any period since the Great Depression.

In February, the government reported last week, 115,848,000 people were employed by the private sector, just 129,000 fewer than the peak set in January 2008, just after what became known as the Great Recession began. That is well below the average gain in recent months.”

Several factors account for this: The enormous deleveraging process following a credit crisis is never good for either wages or job creation. Add to that the many ill advised cuts in state, local and federal hiring, and you have the near record length of time until the economy recovers its precrisis employment level.

 

Continues here

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “74 Months to Employment Recovery (and counting)”

  1. supercorm says:

    There is no deleverage. People just lost their homes, which drove debt ratios lower. People may not have to pay a mortgage, they still have to pay a rent …

    Home ownership fell from 69% to 65% … 4% of 122 million households, thats a lot of mortgages. People aren’t more deleveraged than before, many are even in a worse situation since they now rely on student loans to live from day to day. Student loans are now bigger than credit card loans. If it doesn’t put the Financial system at risk, its certainly doesn’t help in the future when it will be time to buy a house …

    • VennData says:

      Anybody get the feeling the Koch Brothers are paying people to comment?

      • Iamthe50percent says:

        No. He is just describing the reality that working people see. It doesn’t fit Obama’s world view, but Obama (or more accurately, his wife) is a millionaire. To him, if the banks are OK, the economy is OK. To a working man, If he has a job, can afford a house, a car, a big screen TV and some beer, then the economy is OK.

    • Futuredome says:

      In a rentier economy, this is what you would expect and since you are part of the rentier mindset. Replace income with debt and that is how things grow.

      Listen, overall debt in terms of creation definitely fell. Now it can start adding back to the system again as a part of GDP.

  2. VennData says:

    No! It’s a jobless recovery, there’s no oil anywhere, and we are about to see America bow down to Russia! AP! IRS! Bengazi! Fast and Furious! On NO ONE has been charged for Obama’s 2008 bank fraud debacle!!

    Back to Fox News, I’m still all cash.

  3. sellstop says:

    We are still waiting to put the people back to work.

    I hear that the Great Depression of the ’30s was the result of too much debt accumulated by the people. And that depression dragged on and on. It was still going on when the U.S. joined the WWII fray. And if you think about what happened when we went to war at that time in the midst of a depression we may get a clue about what gets us out of this economic/employment depression.

    In WWII we sent all of the ablebodied men, and a few women, overseas in the military. They got some pay from the govt. And at home the govt. contracted with the industrialists for military hardware. But labor was in short supply at home. The women went to work. Labor was in short supply and business had big contracts to fill so labor had some power. The big companies paid good wages and even went so far as to offer medical insurance to employees. But austerity was the order of those years. Goods were rationed and people were strongly encouraged to loan their money back to the government by buying bonds.

    At the end of the war people were flush with cash from the govt. spending on the war. And labor had gained traction. And labor kept the strength in the ensuing years as consumption created a booming economy and as those soldiers begat many brats.

    Those brats grew up and came to take as normal the boom times that they saw. Those boom times would go on forever, they assumed. And furthermore they were told that those boom times in the economy were the result of American Capitalism, and competition is the foundation of capitalism and labor unions are the anti-thesis of competition. So they gave up their voices in the workplaces and found the joys of credit. Free capitalism and free credit. And the boom times continued….

    And now the people have too much debt. They must work at any available “job” due to the shackles of their debt. They have no voice in their work. They gave that away in the name of corporate good. Technology has been used to replace many of those workers leaving those out of work to move down the labor structure until they find employment at a lower wage, displacing the less qualified, who find a bridge by the freeway for shelter and drink themselves into a stupor daily.

    Thank God for Capitalism. It is the only path to prosperity. Or is it?
    It seems that getting the money into the hands of the people at the bottom of the “food chain” was the key to ending the Great Depression of the ’30s. And not just giving it to them, but making them work for it at the same time they gained power in their workplaces to use as the economy improved and to empower those workers to share in the fruits of productivity. In other words to USE capitalism for the good of the people, not the other way around.

    In my view, the voice of organized labor is a part of not only a healthy social structure, but part of a healthy competitive economy. An economy that is not simply defined by the “beancounters”, but by the sense of wellbeing of the most of the participants in the society. The “American Dream” if you will. The govt debt that is the hallmark of a Keynesian manipulation must go to the bottom of society to be effective. That is where it is spread in the most homogenous fashion and where it can most effectively stimulate the velocity of money that can lead to another round of social/credit expansion.

  4. sellstop says:

    I hear that the Great Depression of the ’30s was the result of too much debt accumulated by the people. And that depression dragged on and on. It was still going on when the U.S. joined the WWII fray. And if you think about what happened when we went to war at that time in the midst of a depression we may get a clue about what gets us out of this economic/employment depression.

    In WWII we sent all of the ablebodied men, and a few women, overseas in the military. They got some pay from the govt. And at home the govt. contracted with the industrialists for military hardware. But labor was in short supply at home. The women went to work. Labor was in short supply and business had big contracts to fill so labor had some power. The big companies paid good wages and even went so far as to offer medical insurance to employees. But austerity was the order of those years. Goods were rationed and people were strongly encouraged to loan their money back to the government by buying bonds.

    At the end of the war people were flush with cash from the govt. spending on the war. And labor had gained traction. And labor kept the strength in the ensuing years as consumption created a booming economy and as those soldiers begat many brats.

    Those brats grew up and came to take as normal the boom times that they saw. Those boom times would go on forever, they assumed. And furthermore they were told that those boom times in the economy were the result of American Capitalism, and competition is the foundation of capitalism and labor unions are the anti-thesis of competition. So they gave up their voices in the workplaces and found the joys of credit. Free capitalism and free credit. And the boom times continued….

    And now the people have too much debt. They must work at any available “job” due to the shackles of their debt. They have no voice in their work. They gave that away in the name of corporate good. Technology has been used to replace many of those workers leaving those out of work to move down the labor structure until they find employment at a lower wage, displacing the less qualified, who find a bridge by the freeway for shelter and drink themselves into a stupor daily.

    Thank God for Capitalism. It is the only path to prosperity. Or is it?
    It seems that getting the money into the hands of the people at the bottom of the “food chain” was the key to ending the Great Depression of the ’30s. And not just giving it to them, but making them work for it at the same time they gained power in their workplaces to use as the economy improved and to empower those workers to share in the fruits of productivity. In other words to USE capitalism for the good of the people, not the other way around.

    In my view, the voice of organized labor is a part of not only a healthy social structure, but part of a healthy competitive economy. An economy that is not simply defined by the “beancounters”, but by the sense of wellbeing of the most of the participants in the society. The “American Dream” if you will. The govt debt that is the hallmark of a Keynesian manipulation must go to the bottom of society to be effective. That is where it is spread in the most homogenous fashion and where it can most effectively stimulate the velocity of money that can lead to another round of social/credit expansion.

    • theexpertisin says:

      I think if you read David Kennedy’s Freedom From Fear, a Pulitzer Prize winner, assumptions made in your assessment of the Great Depression of the 1930′s would need to be revisited. Especially the acts of organized labor.

  5. sellstop says:

    Barry,
    Is there a word limit on comments?
    I am trying to post a rather lengthy comment and it disappears.
    gh

  6. FrViper says:

    “Ill advised State, Local, and Federal hiring”! We have too many bureaucarats! Let them find jobs in the private sector and/or create businesses, rather than regulate existing businesses and limiting future entrepreneurs!

    ~~~

    BR: Teachers, cops and firemen were the bulk of the layoffs in most states.