This is one of those things that really annoys me:

One year ago today, Charles Nenner (of the Charles Nenner Research Center) went on TV. His specialty is Cycle Research (whatever that is). He made a very bold call, forecasting a drop to 5,000 in the Dow.

It was not merely that the 50% drop did not come pass. What happened was the opposite, a 32% rally. And so, one year later, we have to recall this prognostication as one of the very worst of the year. The calls on Apple and Intel and Semis were nearly as bad.


Worst call of 2013:

March 4 (Bloomberg) — Charles Nenner Research Center Executive Director Charles Nenner discusses the markets and his prediction of the Dow dropping to 5,000 this year.. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)


Category: Really, really bad calls, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

22 Responses to “Nenner: Dow 5,000 in 2013”

  1. Its not just that it was a terrible call – its that there is zero accountability for these guys, and the media keeps bringing them back year after year . . .

  2. VennData says:

    Admittedly not as good as Obama’s March 3rd, 2009 call to buy stocks which if you ignored, you should ask yourself why.

    The answers will enlighten you and make the country better too.

  3. Willy2 says:

    Well, then I’ll give some more predictions Nenner made in januari of this year:
    - Interest rates are moving higher to 15%.
    - We’ll see deflation again.
    - Buying opportunity for gold in june of this year.
    Based on my own info this is a credible prediction. But will it come to pass ?

    He also correctly predicted that interest rates would head higher in march 2013. So, not all his predictions are bogus.

    • Most of what you reference he has been wrong on.

      • Willy2 says:

        Yes, he’s wrong for the time being. But when I look at the markets today then a number of things do signal that a major structural change is in the works. And that will make 2014 certainly different from 2013.

        My prediction for the 10 year yield: When the USD starts to rise in a strong stright line then that’s the signal for foreigners to start dumping their T-bonds. Actually, the rising USD WILL signal the bond market (incl. T-bonds) has started to implode. And this is based on an extrapolation of what happened in 2008.

        Well, we’ll have to see & wait who’s wrong & right, right ?

      • Dow 5000 in 2013 is ALREADY WRONG.

        Why are you defending this nonsense?

      • Willy2 says:

        - Nenner didn’t mention when that 15% will be hit.
        - Higher interest rates ARE coming. They bottomed in mid 2012. The question is in what pace rates will rise.
        - Interest payments on the federal debt already increased by ~ 60% in 2013 compared to 2012.
        - I think Bernanke voluntarily abdicated from the postion of chairman of the FED because he saw a number of things he didn’t like.
        - Based on my (of course, biased) personal info, it seems the White House could be in panic as well. Too many things are happening now that were unthinkable under the Bush I & II and Obama I administrations.

      • Thanks for YOUR interest rate forecast

  4. Concerned Neighbour says:

    I agree 100%, and this should apply on the buy and sell sides.

    I will say he has a lot of guts to make a down call in this environment, though its magnitude was well into bizarro territory. With the second highest Q ratio in a hundred years, a CAPE over 25, historically high profit margins, etc., etc., one could be forgiven for thinking “markets” are overvalued. But he must have been living under a rock these last few years if he felt the “markets” would ever be allowed to go down again.

  5. Moss says:

    Well 25% of Americans think the Sun revolves around the Earth, majority of GOP registered voters think US is headed for armed revolution, elected members of Congress beleive the Earth is 6K years old.

    Does the ERCI still beleive that the US entered a recession?

  6. SWillimar says:

    For those who say that the market can NEVER go down, that is when you should worry. Is 2008 really that long ago? Subprime contained, economy never better? really?

    We will have boom and bust cycles as long as we continue to emit unbacked credit into the system. It is a mathematical certainty. The timing is where it gets tricky. Of course, the bulls will know when to get out.

    Good luck.

    • The point is NOT that markets cannot go down.

      Rather, most pundits are terrible at forecasting when it will happen

      As was the case here, with the Dow 5000 in 2013 call. It is the same as the Dow 38,000 forecast

    • Concerned Neighbour says:

      SWillimar, have you been paying attention to what the institutions with the power to regulate the supply of the means of exchange have been doing? Do you honestly think any entity can compete with the agenda of said institutions?

      In ordinary times I would agree that markets can and will go down. These are not ordinary times, nor are these “markets” true markets any longer. Current policy is entirely inconsistent with our rhetoric on free markets and price discovery, and it’s leading to massive capital mis-allocation, but it is what it is. The “markets” are clearly overvalued, but that doesn’t mean they won’t get even more overvalued going forward indefinitely. And no one can short anything because, again, who is foolhardy enough to challenge the central banks?

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  8. Langers says:

    The lack of accountability bugs me too but before we laugh at the terrible calls we have to remember that the best (of which this Nenner guy definitely is not) get them wrong – look at Soros’ mistakes in trying to short the euro. I think we have to ask, if anyone took their advice, are they or Nenner to blame for their losses? People should be focusing on the rationale behind the calls and seeing if it makes sense to them or not, and acting accordingly. You can learn a lot from opposing views sometimes even if the market call that goes with it is awful.

    Put another way, if we only had the commentators who were right last year back this year, we’d probably have no one to give us a bearish argument to mull over as they’d be scared of losing their spot.

  9. Wingman says:

    Two points:

    1) When someone talks about cycles, I think “Martin Armstrong and the Princeton Economics debacle.”

    2) To be fair to Nenner, he did not predict Dow 5,000 for 2013. If you listen to the video (until the end), he expects the Dow to hit his target by 2017/2018 …

    … and the powerful up-move since his prediction might be an opportunity to sell more!!!

    Not making a prediction, just following his logic.

  10. RW says:

    Some strange responses to this one:

    Nenner seems to be pandering to an Apocalypse Any Day Now audience (an increasingly crowded business demographic these days) so it is not particularly surprising his prediction misses by several standard deviations (or an order of magnitude depending on how you read it) and, of course, a prediction without a time-frame is not really a prediction at all.

    Why he keeps getting called back is the same reason all the other Apocalypse Any Day Now sods get called back: The business model of corporate media, political action, click trolling, gold sales and other cons requires a prodded and excited audience rather than one that is well informed so …

    • gordo365 says:

      Not an increasingly crowded business demographic – but a crowded retired with too much time on their hands, and entering phase of life where fear overwhelms reason demographic.

  11. Singmaster says:

    Oor Wully2–
    You wrote:
    - I think Bernanke voluntarily abdicated from the postion of chairman of the FED because he saw a number of things he didn’t like.
    Q for you: From everything I’ve read, and what looked to be confirmed by his body language, Bernanke was fired. Please provide evidence to the contrary. I would very much like to see it.

    You wrote:
    - Based on my (of course, biased) personal info, it seems the White House could be in panic as well. Too many things are happening now that were unthinkable under the Bush I & II and Obama I administrations.
    Q for you: I am curious. What unthinkable things are happening, specifically? What is so unthinkable right now? I mean, what is more unthinkable than say, the WTC collapse, the near-collapse of the global financial system, etc? Please share.
    Thank you.

  12. dano9 says:

    It is completely obvious that he never says the DOW will go to 5000 in 2013, but rather predicts that in either 2017 or 2018 it will as a kind of reversion to the mean. It is also obvious that the origination of the topic is that he was asked to comment on someone else’s prediction.

    Analytic rigor begins with reading and listening with care.