Succinct Summations week ending March 7, 2014

Positives:

1. The MSCI World index has hit a new all-time high.
2. The market hit new all-time highs on Tuesday, 24 hours after a flight to safety.
3. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 175k, well ahead of the 149k expected.
4. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% and are up 2.2% y/o/y.
5. U.S. PMI came in at 57.1, beating expectations and highest level since May 2010.
6. Spending increased 0.4% vs expectations for a 0.1% gain.
7. Basic earnings of workers rose in Japan (January) for the first time in nearly 2 years! (H/T Abenomics)
8. Initial jobless claims came in at 323k, down from 348k.
9. Personal income up 0.3%, in line with expectations.
10. February ISM came in at 53.2 v expectations of 52.3.
11. Euro zone PMI was revised from 51.7 up to 52.6

Negatives:

1. The week got off to a rough start with the Russian stock market off 10%, flight to safety ensued.
2. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% from 6.6%.
3. Productivity in Q4 Rose 1.8%, down from 3.2% in Q3 and below expectations.
4.February SAAR vehicle sales came in below expectations and flat y/o/y.
5. Russia’s stock market was down 10% on Monday

Category: Markets

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2 Responses to “Succinct Summations for Weeks Event (3.7.14)”

  1. rd says:

    I viewed the Russian stock market decline as a positive.

    It indicated that Putin may have to choose between the strongman approach or being an economic power integrated financially with the rest of the world. If the ruble stays low, debt becomes more difficult to finance, and the stock market stays depressed, there will likely be financial pressure to back off. The old Soviets wouldn’t have cared but many of the people around Putin like money.

  2. “The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% from 6.6%.”

    I question whether this is a negative – perhaps there needs to be a TBD category (as if it’s not ALL TBD). Though the participation rate was essentially unchanged in the (very preliminary) report, the unemployment rate often ticks up when a recovery gains some steam.