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Source: Calculated Risk



Have a look at the chart above, via Calculated Risk. It aligns the depths of all eleven post WW2 recessions, showing how long it took them to recover all of the jobs lost. The outlier is the 2007-09 contraction, which according to the chart above, is still somewhat below the prior employment level.

Friday’s Employment situation report pegged private sector (nongovernmental) employment back above 116 million. We now have more private sector employment than we did in January 2008, the prior highs in employment.  During the recession, and not too long after, the private sector shed 8.8 million jobs; It has since added 8.9 million private sector jobs.

Continues here

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

12 Responses to “Jobs Recovery”

  1. Hmmm . . . don’t see the rest of the story at the Bloomberg site.

  2. gordo365 says:

    Looks like modern Fed capabilities have really slowed down post-recession recovery.

    Which is worse overall for economy – deep recession with rapid recovery? Or shallow recession with long recovery?

  3. 4whatitsworth says:

    In 1976 the baby boomers began to turn 30 and their influence on the business and political world began. In 2000 the internet became mainstream and proved that it could be used to source more productive and lower cost labor outside of the United States.

    I really feel for today’s kids they have been dealt a very bad hand. Someone will need to explain to the young why free love, music, compassion and communication is better in the long run than a job and marketable skills. Oh well at least legalized Pot will dull the pain.

  4. NMR says:

    The nature of these recessions was different. The 2007/9 one was very much a balance sheet recession. One of those major credit cycle swings that only occurs a couple of times every hundred years. The last one was in 1929/33 and that’s the benchmark that should be used. Most of these recessions were tight money slumps usually connected with economic overheating or irrational exuberance in the stock market.

  5. Aaron says:

    Thanks for sharing Matt Klein’s article on the Monthly U.S. Jobs report. I especially liked Bloomberg’s Visual Data presentation on Matt’s story. I found it interesting that retail (!) and leisure jobs are driving job growth recently while health care and education job growth continues to hold steady.

  6. DeltaV says:

    This analysis fails to take into account population growth since 2008. In order to achieve the same level of employment (employed as a proportion of the total population) we would have to see NFP prints of 400K-500K each month for about 3 years, to get back to 2007 levels. To get back to 2000 levels, maybe 5 years of 400K-500K. So far, the Fed and the administration have done “F” work but want an “A” grade.

    • DeDude says:

      Your numbers fail to take into account that we would not expect a constant proportion of the population to be in the workforce especially as the baby boomers are reaching retirement age.

    • NMR says:

      Given that the only tools at their disposal were monetary ones they deserve a B.

  7. Jim Birch says:

    4whatitsworth: Are you serious? The brilliant “Boomers Done It” theory of economics renounces all conventional explanations like structural change, impact of modern finance, globalization effects, Fed policy,… ?

  8. bigsteve says:

    Nothing new under the sun. If I remember my history correctly during the Great Depression after the economy started to recover austerity was instituted which threw the economy back in to depression. Only after the start of WWII and it’s massive stimulus did we finally leave the depression. Post WWII the economy grew so that debt eventually become non-burdensome. Having work for government most of my life you are so right about the massive layoffs that occurred during the Great Recession mostly in state and local government. Funny the theory was that less government employment would mean more private employment. Well it did not work out that way.

  9. retrogrouch says:

    A large part of the problem with jobs recovery since 1980 (not the 1991, 2001 and 2007 recessions have the longest recovery time) has to do with the shipping of jobs and manufacturing overseas. Stimulus input money used to have a higher multiplier impact when it went to local jobs, local companies and U.S. Corporations. But with 10s of millions of jobs off-shored and an import based economy, stimulus money now very quickly flees the U.S. to the result of a much smaller multiplier. The “globalization” of the economy has neutered many of our recovery tools.