Succinct Summations week ending 4.25.14


1. U.S. Durable goods rise 2.6% v 2% expected, biggest rise since January
2. University of Michigan consumer comes in at 84.1, the highest reading since July.
3. Euro-area PMI rose to 54 in April, up from 53.1 in March and higher than 53 expected
4. Richmond Fed comes in at 7 v 2 expected.
5. China HSBC PMI came in at 48.3, up from 48 in March.
6. Philly fed came in at 16.6, well above the 10 expected.


1. Existing home sales fall to 4.59 million SAAR, the lowest since July 2012
2.  New home sales tumbled 14.5% m/o/m to an annualized pace of 384k units v 450k expected, ugly miss.
3. High flying stocks continue to get crushed, the Nasdaq internet index sold off 4% on Friday.
4. U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 55.4 from 55.5 in March and below 56 expected.
5. Mortgage applications fell 3.3% last week.
6. Initial jobless claims come in at 329k v 315k expected



Category: Markets

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3 Responses to “Succinct Summations of Week’s Event’s 4.25.14”

  1. chartist says:

    I think the markets are going to discount the end of QE over the next three months. I am set up for a sizable correction down to 1550 SPX….With Ford’s beta of 1.35, I put that stock down to $12.25. I think next quarter will be the kitchen sink quarter for Ford. For me, the wild card are the emerging markets. I am watching the monthly chart on the EEM. That sideways triangle is nearing the apex. A downside break measures to $20. What would a breakdown of the emerging markets mean for our market? I like gold here up to $1500.

  2. MarkKlose says:

    While the housing recovery is undeniably weak, it’s not as bad as the headline numbers suggest. The decline in existing home sales is entirely due to lower distressed sales (foreclosures & short sales) with regular sales flattish to up slightly. The drop in distressed sales is very good news. We wont know for a couple of months how much the new home market was affected by the weather, but it’s worth noting that when you look at the new order data from 6 of the largest home builders, they had about a 1% increase from the same period last year. But location & product mix really matters, as the weakest were down 5.5% to 6.5% while others were up 6% to 8%. Overall housing starts continue to have a higher percentage of multifamily than is customary. Very tight underwriting is a more significant headwind than higher mortgage rates. Again, very weak but the headline numbers are misleading.

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