Good Thursday morn:

• What kills bull markets? (Yahoo Finance)
• The 52-week High List Continues to Diverge (All Star Charts) see also Russell Breaks Down, Negative Divergence in NYSE New Highs (Reformed Broker)
• Should We Forget Shiller CAPE Ratios And Focus On E/P Instead? (Kitces)
• Why Are Americans So Bad With Money? (The Atlantic)
• Robert Shiller’s Data Say the Last Two Times Have Been Different (Beat the Press)
• Algorithms Beat Intuition – the Evidence is Everywhere (TurnKey Analyst)
• Surprise! ‘Pro-business’ policies hurt state economic growth (LA Times) but see State Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans’ Interstate Moves (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)
• Eat More Nuts (And Vegetables, And Don’t Forget to Exercise And Quit Smoking) (FiveThirtyEight)
• The top ten global warming ‘skeptic’ arguments answered (The Guardian) see also Will we now finally care about climate change? (WonkBook)
• The Man Who Literally Built ‘Star Wars’ (Esquire)

What are you reading?


Teen Pregnancies, Births, and Abortions Reach All-Time Low

Source: Know More


Originally published here

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “10 Thursday AM Reads”

  1. RW says:

    Will the vanity of centrists doom us to climate disaster?

    Knee-jerk moderation is not the same thing as sensible risk management …

    To stay under two degrees of warming, we must sharply reduce our emissions very soon. The longer we procrastinate, the steeper the drop must be to stay under two degrees. …

    Political moderation on climate change is many things, but perhaps the most important one is that, as we’ve seen, it is incredibly risky. Such a position is, in effect, courting tremendous damage to human civilization to avoid admitting that the greens might be right about something.

    NB: “…the nickel summary of the climate hawk case: According to the IPCC, to keep warming under two degrees Celsius, human society can emit roughly one trillion metric tons of carbon dioxide. As of 2011, we have emitted 531 billion tons, leaving 469 billion tons remaining to stay under the one trillion ton cap. We are releasing roughly 29 billion tons per year, which is increasing — meaning on our current path we will blow through the cap by 2040.”

    If we blow through here’s what a 4 degree C rise would probably look like.

    Normal precautionary logic argues that uncertainty can actually be a time for greater action rather than less but most humans, like deer in the headlights, aren’t wired that way. Too bad.

  2. rd says:

    Re: Algorithms beat Intuition

    Russo and Shoemaker were making these same arguments in the 1990s. They published two books (Decision Traps and Winning Decisions) basically demonstrating that that you need to make decisions like a complex computer than can take data, build a model, use a Bayesian approach to integrate qualtitative information and then arrive at a decision instead of just using “intuition” and “judgement”. They did a great job in presenting it in regular English and not statistical-speak.

    “Decision Traps” essentially presents the research with some recommendations. “Winning Decision” is structured more as a “How To” book. I suspect that we would not have had a financial crisis if these books had been read and internalized by the leaders in the financial sector.

    • VennData says:

      Americans don’t read books.

      Fox won’t air stuff like this when their biggest sponsers are their own personalities selling gold.

      People won’t watch PBS because in the utlimate expression of talking your own book, Rupert Murdoch tells his viewers all other media are lying.

      Rupert Murdoch talks his own book and you suckers read his shitty WSJ. My financial plan isto do the opposite of what Fox, the WSJ opinion page and Rick Sanyelli say. It has worked for years.

  3. VennData says:

    Bush Socialism works!

    “…Fannie Mae expects to pay Treasury $5.7 billion in dividends in June 2014. With the expected June dividend payment, Fannie Mae will have paid a total of $126.8 billion in dividends to Treasury in comparison to $116.1 billion in draw requests since 2008…”

  4. VennData says:

    The GOP wants to go back to those wonderful Bush years.

    Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the committee, was particularly critical of the Fed’s performance, sharply questioning Ms. Yellen’s statement that the labor market was showing signs of progress. “We’ve got fewer people working today than there were in 2007 and the population has increased by 15 million,” he said. “So how is this progress? Please tell me.”

  5. Jojo says:

    On average, Americans get 189 cable TV channels and only watch 17
    A new Nielsen report raises questions about the channel-bundling system.

    by Megan Geuss – May 6 2014, 12:07pm PDT

    In a blog post on Tuesday, Nielsen reported that on average, US homes receive 189.1 TV channels, but viewers only watch 17.5 of those channels.

    The news will appear in Nielsen’s forthcoming “Advertising & Audiences Report,” and while the results seem somewhat intuitive, they articulate a very real problem in cable TV–the fact that consumers often feel forced into paying for a lot of TV they never watch.

    Nielsen’s blog post today showed that the number of cable channels in an average US household has grown dramatically over the last five years, but the number of channels that viewers actually watch has hardly changed at all. In 2008, US households received an average of 129.3 channels but only actually viewed 17.3 channels. In 2013, the number of channels received increased 46 percent, but the number of channels viewed only increased 1 percent.

    The data, Nielsen says, “substantiates the notion that more content does not necessarily equate to more channel consumption. And that means quality is imperative–for both content creators and advertisers.”

    • Iamthe50percent says:

      Does anyone actually watch QVC or the Jewelry Channel? Not to mention the dozen or so religious channels that WOW! forces on me.I suppose someone watches the Spanish channels. One acquaintance tells me he likes to watch the Spanish Soap Operas with the sound turned off.

  6. VennData says:

    Rahm Responds To Newspaper’s Harsh Criticism

    “…​Mayor Rahm Emanuel responded with humor Wednesday to a Chicago Tribune article that labeled him as a “walking personality disorder…”​

    ​It’s like sexism. Traits that Republican genuflectors desire in leaders are evil tics in a Democrat.

  7. Jojo says:

    Al Jazeera America
    Only one-quarter of seniors are math proficient and just 4 in 10 in reading, scores that are little changed since 2009
    May 7, 2014

    Handing out dismal grades on Wednesday, the Nation’s Report Card said America’s high school seniors lack math and reading skills critical in an increasingly competitive global economy.

    Only about one-quarter are performing proficiently or better in math and just 4 in 10 in reading. And they’re not improving, the report says, reinforcing concerns that large numbers of today’s students are unprepared for either college or the workplace.

    Scores on the 2013 exam in both subjects were little changed from 2009, when the National Assessment of Educational Progress was last given to 12th-graders. The new results come from a representative sample of 92,000 public and private school students.

    The report follows the just-released and seemingly more encouraging research that U.S. high school graduation rates in 2012 reached 80 percent, a record.

    One possible explanation is that lower-performing students who in the past would have dropped out of school are now remaining in the sampling of students who take the exam, said John Easton, acting commissioner of the Education Department’s National Center for Education Statistics.