Post Credit Crisis Job Creation

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

 

Last week’s jobs report has returned the U.S. economy back to its peak pre-recession levels of employment. (there is a debate about the quality of jobs being created, but we shall save that conversation for another time).

As the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis reminds us, all financial crises are different, including the Great Recession.

I was as surprised as I suspect you will be to see the US recovery since 2009 has looked much better than many other financial crises. This was a faster recovery than Sweden (1991), Finland (1991), Norway (1987), Spain (1977) and United States (1929). Observers continue to wait out Japan (1992), which still has yet to regain its peak pre crisis employment levels.

Continues here

Category: Bailouts, Data Analysis, Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

10 Responses to “How Does the 2009-2014 Recovery Compare?”

  1. Frilton Miedman says:

    I’d like to see wage recovery and household debt as a % of income in the same format.

    My guess, we’d see a dip in wages after each recession for the U.S. since 1980, with recovery after the fact not keeping pace with growth but displaced with debt.

  2. 4whatitsworth says:

    The S&L crisis of the 80′s where almost a third of the S&L’s failed was conveniently left off this chart. I wonder what else is missing in this liberal tale..

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

  3. Mike in Nola says:

    Too bad there weren’t any McDonald’s in the Great Depression. Hoover might have gotten a second term.

    • WickedGreen says:

      If I had anything in my mouth, you would have provoked a superb spit-take.

      Freaking outstanding. Kudos to you. Hilarious, but for the macabre subject matter.

  4. RW says:

    When the focus is on aggregate statistics and industries, recovery during the Great Recessions does look reasonably good. But as our host intimates, the quality of new jobs has been generally uninspiring, and in truth this is the tip of a much larger iceberg.

    Debunking the Myth of Wage-Led Inflation

    …labor costs have been essentially flat between the end of the Great Recession and the first quarter of 2014. Profits earned per unit sold, on the other hand, have been rising at an average annual growth rate of nearly 9% since the recovery’s beginning. To the degree that there is any inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy over that time, it is surely not coming from labor costs.

    NB: I have suspected for some time (and invested accordingly) that this current bull market was driven strongly by profits carved out of what remained of worker and middle class household budgets; e.g., demanding more work for the same pay, gaming part-time and contract employee systems, stealing overtime, importing labor and/or exporting work, etc.

    • Frilton Miedman says:

      No debating the premise, but, Inflation also has a demand side too, no?

      For decades demand was stabilized with household debt in place of wage growth, but it looks like a combination of households being spooked into deleveraging, and banks not lending as conspicuously (thanks partly to interest on excess reserves effective in 2008) has helped level inflation despite the increased buying power of households with substantially lower mortgage/debt costs from Fed policy.

      The recent surge in food prices is linked to the past two Summers’ droughts here and in Russia, I think that accounts for a large portion of inflation, a temporary supply problem (we hope).

      I also suspect speculative trading plays a role in price, just as Rex Tillerson admitted to Congress that oil prices are pumped upwards of 40% by futures manipulation/speculation, from there I suspect TBTF prop desks engage in a regular game of influencing futures prices to affect input costs/earnings & position themselves in regular equities, as was recently revealed by JPM and BCS manipulating the California market.

      We only know about it because of careless boastful Emails between traders, which leads me to believe it’s a lot more common that we know.

      The latter may seem “conspiracy theory” until we recall reactions to the same assertions about the LIBOR manipulation in 2008 that later turned out to be true.

      All told, it’s hard to know what to believe anymore in the advent of the CFMA & removing Glass-Steagall’s effects on the market.

      • RW says:

        Frilton, can’t quarrel with your focus. The financial asset markets are more turbid than turbulent in part because there is a bid hidden under the muck. Some like to imagine it is the Fed fooling with price discovery but that would be confusing the grass with the predators that hunt the herbivores who eat it; about two levels off the mark (more or less).

      • Frilton Miedman says:

        I don’t see the Fed as the predator where it’s only doing what’s necessary, though ironically it’s comprised of said predators, I see this as a result of Congress/Senate/POTUS creating those predators to begin with (Glass-Steagall/CFMA), which then links to money in politics distorting the rule of law.

  5. DeltaV says:

    The US has yet to regain its peak employment levels. At the rate of 288,000 new jobs per month, employment levels in the US will be back to year 2000 levels of about 47% in just over 8 years. According to the Federal Reserve, assuming 1% population CAGR.

    Still, much better than Japan so not complaining.

  6. supercorm says:

    The only difference between US ’29 and US ’07 are McJobs and Wal Mart jobs … plus $4 trillion money printing.

    iFind Japan pretty disturbing since they experienced the baby boomers issues (population aging) 10 years before us.

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