Regular readers of mine know I spend lots of time debunking bias and cognitive errors. With the markets up as much as they have been, it has been easier to find examples of that error in the bearish camp than the bullish one (See this as an example of cognitive bias in action).

The bulls are just as likely to engage in selective perception and confirmation bias as their ursine counterparts. In the spirit of fair play and equal criticism, I should point out that the rallying market has provided them cover, allowing them to look more correct — and therefore less biased — than the bears. However, we much prefer to look at investing as a process rather than an activity based on outcomes. Let’s hope that helps us avoid getting fooled by dumb luck.

Which brings me to today’s charts. The first one has been getting touted by the bulls as a sign that all is well, the consumer is back, and there is lots more upside in equity markets. A closer look reveals that you can’t conclude any of that.  Continues here

Category: Data Analysis, Investing

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “A Not So Beautiful Deleveraging…”

  1. hue says:

    good Grieff, Bloomberg should stop changing your headlines

  2. krice2001 says:

    Barry – Since the title is “Deleveraging”, on those lines I read an Interesting “essay” on debt and its relation to rising inequality, “Debt and Inequality Go Together: Rising Debt Is the Cause of Rising Inequality”. It’s an articulate discussion on debt and the “politics” and generational issues around it. I’m not sure how I feel about all of his points, but I felt it was worth the time to read.

  3. [...] Not So Beautiful Deleveraging (The Big Picture) [...]

  4. 4whatitsworth says:

    A clean balance sheet with low debt is a beautiful thing, that is if you are the owner of that balance sheet.

    Now if you are trying to get the suckers to come out play that is an entirely different ball game. Let’s all lever up, interest rates are as low as they will ever be.. right?