Lately, I have been hear an interesting type of argument. It is a form of debate that is both disingenuous and dishonest. We will call this the “Can’t Lose Argument,” or CLA. Worse than confirmation bias, it is a money-losing exercise in narcissism.
The CLA goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned, and no matter what the net change in that data — up, down or neutral — it is somehow bad for markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, all are fair game for the CLA.
Let me share a few examples of it:
CLA: “This quarter, corporate earnings are going to be weak. Perhaps even a negative growth number. That proves a recession is close.”
The Rational Person, or RP for short, notes that analysts forecast higher profits.
CLA: “Well, maybe not negative, but soft — worse than last year in the same quarter.”
Then earnings exceed forecasts.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
4 Responses to “Beware those who are never, and can never be wrong.”
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