Lately, I have been hear an interesting type of argument. It is a form of debate that is both disingenuous and dishonest. We will call this the “Can’t Lose Argument,” or CLA. Worse than confirmation bias, it is a money-losing exercise in narcissism.

The CLA goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned, and no matter what the net change in that data — up, down or neutral — it is somehow bad for markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, all are fair game for the CLA.

Let me share a few examples of it:

Earnings

CLA: “This quarter, corporate earnings are going to be weak. Perhaps even a negative growth number. That proves a recession is close.”

The Rational Person, or RP for short, notes that analysts forecast higher profits.

CLA: “Well, maybe not negative, but soft — worse than last year in the same quarter.”

Then earnings exceed forecasts.

continues here

 

Category: Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Beware those who are never, and can never be wrong.”

  1. VennData says:

    1) Tax cuts are never wrong and always raise revenue, increase taxes paid… depending upon the time frame.

    http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/07/across-teh-wide-missouri-july-28-2014-middle-class-political-economist-stephen-moore-heritage-of-course-cant-even-get.html#more

    2) The never-wrong GOP House members should send their sons and daughters to fight in Libya.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/28/oil-depot-catches-fire-amid-clashes-in-tripoli/13260507/

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28521551

    The GOP are never wrong and should impeach Obama now!

  2. VennData says:

    Zero Hedge, Putin Apologist!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-24/russia-accuses-us-fabricating-mh17-evidence-us-reveals-more-evidence-russian-militar

    ZH’s pseudo economic prognostication wrong? Just double down, bold face, and let everyone have it.

    Zero Hedge should be the little photo on the Wikipage definition for those who can never be wrong.

  3. VennData says:

    Rick Santelli!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837966

    One day, he’ll be proven right and you’ll all be sorry!

  4. SumDumGuy says:

    My vote is for Gary Shilling, who has called 200 of the past 2 recessions

    http://www.businessinsider.com/shilling-no-spring-thaw-for-us-economy-2014-7

    Plus the commentary is pure comedy gold. Tons of confirmation bias galore!

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