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It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On July 11, 2014 @ 8:33 am In Cognitive Foibles,Financial Press,Markets,Psychology,UnGuru | 9 Comments

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit?

That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying on the usual suspects as a source of insight. This is especially the case when the usual suspects have been so wrong for so long about these issues.

Ask yourself the following questions:

• When has the mainstream media made a timely warning about an imminent recession?

• Has the punditocracy ever correctly identified a bubble in real time?

• When have the public’s perspectives on market valuation ever been right?

Look at mutual fund flows [1] if you want to see how wrong individuals are; check out various valuation methods [2] to see how much bias and data cherry-picking goes on.

Continues here [3]



Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/07/its-a-bubble-its-a-recession-its-a-crash/

URLs in this post:

[1] mutual fund flows: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-09/how-not-to-beat-the-market-ritholtz-chart

[2] valuation methods: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-08/stock-prices-as-a-rorshach-test-ritholtz-chart

[3] Continues here: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-11/the-secret-to-perfect-market-forecasts

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