One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.
Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).
He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.
Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.
Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.
400,000 basis points!
The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end just as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who’s bull you choose to listen to.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
8 Responses to “About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .”
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