Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500.

One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.

Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).

He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.

Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.

Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.

400,000 basis points!

The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end just as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who’s bull you choose to listen to.


Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment, Short Selling

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .”

  1. ADMIN says:

    ADMIN: Oops, sorry, I forgot to add the data source for that under-perforrmance

  2. Concerned Neighbour says:

    The likes of Tice fundamentally underestimated just how far central banks would go (i.e. “temporary, emergency” free money in perpetuity). As a result I somewhat sympathize with his original call, but he has only himself to blame with subsequent plunge calls for thinking that anything matters at this point but what central banks are doing.

    BTW, I truly don’t know if this bull(s**t) “market” will ever end, BR. Central bank spigots, well-programmed (if rather blatant) trading software, widespread corporate influence/corruption, and shady accounting is a powerful combination.

  3. enuff says:

    Well, he has to talk his book ….my #1 rule … follow the money.

  4. Moopheus says:

    It would appear that the underperformance is a feature, not a bug:

    “Focuses primarily on strategic short selling along with investments in stocks of companies that mine or explore for precious metals or other natural resources.
    Historically negative correlation with major U.S. and international asset classes.
    Seeks to limit losses in bull markets through defined risk-management strategies.”

    Which is to say, it is a place for goldbugs and others who believe that central-bank-managed ‘fiat’ monetary systems are unholy and only their preciousss is worth anything. In other words, he _has_ to say these things, so that his investors won’t lose the faith. Whether it’s a con or he really believes it himself, who can say. Though, since what he sells is a paper asset that will only ever pay off in the fiat money he doesn’t believe in, one might make a guess.

    • Futuredome says:

      problem is, his “gold” is a fiat currency. all currency is “fiat”. Tice is spewing crap to rake his followers in. Timing the end of market runs is never easy as he tries to make it.

      He is a hustler

  5. VennData says:

    Once you’ve gone out there like Rick Santelli, Joe Kernan, Marc Faber et al over and over, how is one more, marginal screech offFire in the theater going to hurt?

    The charlatans will be able to point to it and ignore all the other relevant info. The Wall Street Journal opinion page does this as a business model.

    Look at all the Right Wing wackos screaming that “Obama has no strategy!” today or “All Gore thinks he invented the internet!” in years past.

  6. ricecake says:

    1 of the “Crying Wolf” guys. He’ll be finally proved to be right. Question is when and which time. Many will be dead before the he’ll be finally be the right one.

    Problem with many people like him is they don’t take the political might into their calculation. it’s always politic before economic decision because political and social factors are priceless. Look at the countries like Libya and Iraq, they have tremendous oil wealth but their don’t have the political social and rule of law and civilization infrastructures to utilize and support that wealth. Therefore, all they have is misery.

  7. rfk says:

    …The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity…

    Roger Ebert one wrote: Better be nice to the Amish. In a year we’ll be trading gold bars for their food, haha.

  8. […] to making wrong predictions, it is not at all surprise that media pundits are still around predictings several market crashes in the last five years, while the S&P 500 index tripled its value in […]