Category: Think Tank

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5 Responses to “Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?”

  1. willid3 says:

    wondering if the losers of WW2 (Germany and Japan) are loosing population in part because of it? after all their population after WW2 were hit hard. and while GBR was a winner it too was hit very hard by the war. and The US gained because it was one of the winners and that lead to the baby boomers? but not so sure that the forecast for more US workers is realistic we are already talking about having fewer workers post baby boomer

    • Willy2 says:

      Nope. In Europe, Japan, Australia there was a “Baby Boom” after World War II. The US has a slightly better demograpic build up because of immigration predminantly from Latin America. But the US will suffer as well. Because in the year 2008/2009 in ALL regions mentioned the group of people aged 47 peaked and the group of people of the age 47 shrank after 2009 in EACH & EVERY year. And that’s extremely deflationary.

      See the work of Harry S. Dent. He has written many books on this subject. Most important of all: He predicted already in 1993 the stockmarket boom of the second half of the 1990s and of the early 2000s. What made his predictions so valuable was that already in 1993 predicted that around 2008/2009 the bull market in stocks would be over. And that an economic contraction would follow.

  2. Willy2 says:

    This is not a question for Harry S. Dent. He knows an aging population is deflationary.

  3. futuresmkt says:

    Is this a rhetorical question? Unless you have a nation of generic above average investors and a genetically superior gene pool, by definition an aging population is deflationary. You must have declining per capita discretionary spending as well as a reduced goods consumption matrix (less sex, drugs and rock n’ roll for thé old-timers). Since Japanese youth have decided to not reproduce (at least domestically) and the Japanese government discourages immigration, the question is moot.

  4. says:

    The demographic pattern would be very similar in Europe to that in Japan if it wasn’t for immigration ….