Last month, I spilled a considerable number of pixels explaining why Rupert Murdoch’s Time Warner bid had no significance to whether or not this is a market top.

My short list included complaints of cherry picked data that somehow ignored most of Murdoch’s M&A activity over the past half century; a laughably small sample size of just two; and every statistician’s favorite foible, assuming correlation equals causation, and not a merely random outcome.

We get to revisit that exercise in debunking that silly chart this morning on the news that wily ole Rupert has withdrawn his bid for Time Warner. And just to show how serious he – that his offer is really off the table – 21st Century Fox announced a $6 billion buyback, disposing of the cash that could have used to purchase Time Warner.

Its as if he is saying: “Stop me before I acquire again!”

Forget the M&A news for a moment, and think about the arc of this takeover bid, and withdrawal relative to the claim that the bid itself was proof a top was imminent. What implications does the withdrawal of the bid have?

10 Questions Investors Should Be Asking Themselves Now

1.  Continues here

 

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Murdoch Market Indicator (or, has Rupert Signaled a New Bull Market?)”

  1. VennData says:

    Gundlach’s Bet on Rates Wins Most Cash as MBS Funds Lose

    “…The first thing people say about why they invest with us is the performance with a capital A,” said Gundlach, 54, the co-founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, who this year added a drip painting by abstract expressionist Jackson Pollock to his art collection. “But, the small letter b, as one guy said to me, is we like the way you move…”

    Mortgage-backed Jackson Pollocks to an Outlast lyric!!! Buy!!!

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/gundlach-s-bet-on-rates-wins-most-cash-as-mbs-funds-lose.html

    Russian Corporates denominated in yuan!

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/dim-sum-yields-jumping-show-hurdles-in-russian-pivot-east.html

    Norwegian high yield bonds!

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/norway-becomes-magnet-for-riskiest-forex-bonds-nordic-credit.html

    Zero Hedge wants you to buy Russia!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/putin%E2%80%99s-approval-russia-soars-record-america%E2%80%99s-plunges-near-zero

  2. hue says:

    Traffic During the Facebook Outage (Chartbeat)

    Israel, Gaza, War & Data: social networks and the art of personalizing propaganda (Medium 10) welcome to the Balkans

    Revenge of Conservative Nerds (Vox)

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