Forward Change in S&P500 Earnings
December 7, 2015 10:00am by Barry Ritholtz
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and then there is this …
http://ritholtz.com/2015/12/attention-forecasters-stfu/
How are we supposed to have ANY confidence in what ANYONE predicts forward earnings to be?
I find it curious that graphs of “ESTIMATED earnings growth” would appear in a website named “FACTset.com”
OTOH, at least they are labeled “estimated” … and estimates of CY2015 Q4 ought to be pretty close, as we are almost 1/4 of the way through the last month in the quarter … but in a quarter that accounts for most of the economic activity for the year, small errors can have an outsized impact …
And then again, examining the various categories being compared … how does “internet retail” merit a comparison with any of the other retail categories, when some fraction of each one of them is sold over the internet? (unless, of course, “Internet retail” refers only to pricing of ISP services)
Do the Wal-Mart web sales reside in the internet retail category, or in the Hypermarket & Super center category? Or both?
Charts like this require about a page or two of clarifying text before one can rationally interpret them, assuming such an interpretation is even possible.
Bah! Hum-bug!