About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .

Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500.

One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.

Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).

He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.

Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.

Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.

400,000 basis points!

The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end jut as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who you choose to listen to.

 

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment, Short Selling

Jaguar F-Type R Coupe

From the Wall Street Journal: Base price: $99,000 Price, as tested: $104,975 Powertrain: Front-mounted supercharged 5.0-liter, DOHC 32-valve, direct-injection V8 with variable cam phasing and active exhaust; eight-speed automatic transmission; rear-wheel drive with electronic limited-slip differential. Horsepower/torque: 550 hp at 6,500 rpm/502 pound-feet at 2,500-5,500 rpm Length/weight: 176.0 inches/3,638 pounds Wheelbase: 103.2 inches 0-60 mph: <4 seconds EPA fuel economy: 16/23/18 mpg, city/highway/combined…Read More

Category: Weekend

Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises

Category: Think Tank

Discuss: High Food Prices

High Food Prices Lead to Trade-offs Even in Upper-Income Household; Stores Shrink Meat Packages, Push Inexpensive Cuts; Downgrade to Chicken at the Weekend Grill   Source: WSJ  

Category: Food and Drink, Inflation

10 Thursday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads: • The Challenge (Reformed Broker) see also Your asset allocation is wrong (and so is everyone else’s.) (Bason Asset Management) • What’s The Matter With France? (Krugman) • Europe’s Banks to Offload $770 Billion of Non-Core Property Assets (World Property Channel) see also Europe Bank Cleanup Driving $1.72 Trillion of Asset…Read More

Category: Markets

Sitting Is Killing You

source: visual.ly

Category: Markets

Warren Buffett’s Attackers Are Hypocritical

The jury is out as to how much of the Burger King-Tim Horton merger is driven by the desire for tax savings. So far, the range seems to be modestly to not very much. The Los Angeles Times noted “Burger King’s overall effective tax rate in 2013 was 27.5%, according to its annual report. Tim…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Legal, Taxes and Policy

10 Thursday AM Reads

Its a spectacular day here in NYC, and we bring you our slow smoked, dry rubbed reads for your pre-holiday weekend Thursday enjoyment: (continues here): • Another V-Shaped Rally to New Highs, What’s Next? (Sassy Options) see also Here’s What Happens After Major Market Milestones (MoneyBeat) • Finance is a Strange Industry (Motley Fool) •…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Banks, Shadow Banking, and Fragility

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Federal Debt: All You Need to Know in Three Minutes

David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, helps you understand both the short-term and the long-term picture of the federal debt.

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy, Video