click for ginormous chart
Source: Kimble Charting
Awesome chart from Chris Kimble showing the Nikkei going back to 1982 — in particular, the downtrend that began in 1989 and still persists to this day.
Chris notes that Declines of 32% to 60% taken place at this level for the past 20 years!
One would normally expect a pullback and consolidation after a long move up to a major trendline, and under pre-Abenomics stimulus, that would be my highest probability outcome (pre-stimulus, I have no idea!).
The key here is if and when the Nikkei breaks through that trendline, it is likely the beginning of a longer term multi-year breakout. This is why we put on Japan exposure for clients much earlier this year.
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Disclosure: Clients are long GAL, DXJ, which have substantial exposure to Japan.
Category: ETFs, Investing, Technical Analysis
This is the presentation I gave at the IPI yesterday:
Category: Hedge Funds, Psychology
It does not look like the best weather this weekend, so I expect to be around to keep you entertained: • The Smart Money Is Still Bullish (Barron’s) • Notes from the PIMCO Investment Summit with Mohamed El-Erian (The Reformed Broker) Is this the dumb money? • With ‘Abenomics,’ Japan catches a sense of revival…Read More
Category: Financial Press
Since it is a Friday before a 3 day holiday weekend, it is a good time to kick back, and think about what the recent market action might (or might not) mean. • Most Day-to-day market action is noise, There is very little signal involved, with the vast majority of commentary simply after-the-fact rationalizations of…Read More
Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Rules, Sentiment, Technical Analysis
Ouch! There is a valid point to be made about emotions in Trading, but it gets lost in the sauce here:
At a University of Virginia symposium in late April, Paul Tudor Jones responded to a question about why the panel only featured “rich, white, middle-aged men.”
Tudor responded by saying that trading requires intense focus, which he believes many women lose when they have children. The panel featured (from left to right) U-Va. professor David Mick, Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corporation, Julian Robertson of Tiger Management, John Griffin of Blue Ridge Capital and moderator Jeff Walker, chairman of the U-Va. Council of Foundations
Paul Tudor Jones comments on the lack of female traders
Category: Think Tank
Forget “Peak Oil” and “Peak Credit” … Are We On the Downslope of “Peak Intelligence”? Scientists say that we have much smaller brains than our ancestors had 20,000 years ago … and we might have gotten stupider since agriculture became widespread. Indeed, Huffington Post reports that we’ve probably gotten dumber than even our Victorian…Read More
Category: Think Tank
Jess Bachman
Did you know that the 400 richest people in America are wealthier than the bottom 60%? The 1%, you say? More like the 1% of the 1% of the 1% — and you can fit them all on one 747 commercial jet. This video has the details
Category: Video, Wages & Income
My thunderstorm afternoon train reading: • The Uncertainty of Risk (n+1) see also Adaptation (The Reformed Broker) • Jonathan Miller: Home Supply Limited by Americans Lacking Equity to Sell (Bloomberg) • Greenspan’s Market Persists (Alhambra Investment Partners) and How Much of a Dove Is Bernanke, Really? (Businessweek) • Oil Manipulation Inquiry Shows EU’s Hammer After…Read More
Category: Financial Press
