Posts filed under “Analysts”

Apple’s New Product Intro Pattern

Farhad Manjoo of the NYT explains the why the usual pattern seems to be happening with Apple:

“Analysts’ estimates vary wildly, with many originally predicting that Apple sold three million to five million watches from April to the end of June. After studying Apple’s opaque earnings report, several analysts revised their estimates down to about 1.5 million to three million watches. Even at the lower end, that’s the opposite of instant death: Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, pointedly said the watch sold more in its first nine weeks on the market than either theiPhone or the iPad did in that same period.

Yet the future of the Apple Watch will not be determined by first-quarter sales. Apple’s product debuts tend to follow a well-worn script: A first-generation device is always criticized as overpriced and a bit lacking in utility and is often vulnerable to the charge that it is a solution in search of a problem. Then, over a few years, Apple and its customers figure out the best uses for the gadget, and the company methodically improves design and functionality to meet those needs. It also tends to lower its prices. Correspondingly, sales explode.”

-In Apple Watch Debut, Signs of a Familiar Path to Success

 

Category: Analysts, Technology

Market Forecasters Are Like Blind Squirrels…

Earlier this summer, I tweeted a wonderful line from Brett Arends column, 25 things I wish I knew when I graduated from high school:

 

 

That led to a delightful column last week from Michael Johnston’s A Visual History of Market Crash Predictions.

Here are some of the more egregious calls, but the entire article is well worth your time to read:

 

 

Summary-7.16
Source: Fund Reference

 

 

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Category: Analysts, Mathematics, Really, really bad calls

Analysts Are Now Honestly Wrong. That’s a Huge Improvement…

Sometimes the gains from a new regulatory regime are obvious. The creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is a perfect example. Your bank deposits are guaranteed by the government up to some stated amount, no matter the recklessness or irresponsibility of the bankers running the place. It wasn’t always this way. Before the FDIC,…Read More

Category: Analysts, Legal, Regulation, Research

Always a ‘Great Quarter, Guys!

It’s Always a ‘Great Quarter, Guys!’ If You’re an Equity Analyst Source: Bloomberg    

Category: Analysts, Earnings

Margin Debt Hits an All-Time High . . . So What?

Every now and again, a way of looking at markets suddenly gains traction. Data gets assembled, analyzed, reviewed. Eventually, it becomes the basis of traders’ decision-making process. It even can become part of Wall Street lore. The problem that arises all too often is that this approach is statistically bogus. The data gets cherry picked;…Read More

Category: Analysts, Really, really bad calls, Technical Analysis, Trading

Don’t Let Bias Corrupt Your Analysis

Those of you who over the many years have followed some of the thoughts and observations I jot down each morning may have noticed several themes. Prominent among them is that forecasting is folly; cognitive errors create investing mistakes; consider context when analyzing data; recency bias overemphasizes the latest data; mixing politics with investing is…Read More

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

S&P 500′s Dubious Market-Cap Weighted Anniversary

  click for larger graphic     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is market-capitalization weighted, meaning that companies with higher stock-market valuations have a bigger influence on the index. There has been a cottage industry of criticism about this structure. Recently, it has led to a new world of fundamental indexing and so-called smart…Read More

Category: Analysts, Index/ETFs, Markets, Valuation

Apple Earnings Show Why You Can’t Trust Pundits

Category: Analysts, Media, Technology, Video

Apple’s Q Reveals the Perils of Earnings Predictions

Apple’s first-quarter earnings were blow-out numbers. Far beyond what anyone forecast, the figures show Apple arguably had the single-greatest quarterly performance in U.S. corporate history. A quick overview: Apple’s net profit of $18 billion is an astonishing gain of 38 percent over the already-huge $13.1 billion in the same quarter last year. (So much for…Read More

Category: Analysts, Earnings, Technology

RIP Paul Macrae Montgomery, originator of Magazine Cover Indicator

  Paul Macrae Montgomery, best known as the originator of the Time Magazine Cover Indicator, and for popularizing the Hemline Indicator of the stock market, died this weekend. He was 72. I was fortunate to have had several conversations with Mongomery over the years. He was humble and soft spoken but he took delight in…Read More

Category: Analysts, Markets, Psychology