Posts filed under “Analysts”

RIP Paul Macrae Montgomery, originator of Magazine Cover Indicator

hemline

 

Paul Macrae Montgomery, best known as the originator of the Time Magazine Cover Indicator, and for popularizing the Hemline Indicator of the stock market, died this weekend. He was 72.

I was fortunate to have had several conversations with Mongomery over the years. He was humble and soft spoken but he took delight in puncturing the bad theories that pass for analysis on Wall Street.

Long before behavioral economics became popular, he argued that standard economic theories “overlooked the human factor in markets.”

Continues here

 

 

 

 

Category: Analysts, Markets, Psychology

Dilbert: Beating Earnings Estimates

Presented without comment:   Source: Dilbert

Category: Analysts, Corporate Management, Humor

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker Capitulates

Until, not so long ago, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker was one of the most bearish analysts on the street. He had consistently violated one of the first rules of the market: Never mix politics with investing. Following last year’s 30% S&P 500 rally, he has had a change of heart. He now has a 3000…Read More

Category: Analysts, Investing

Enjoy Your Weekend Reading on the CAPE

In our discussion of Mr. Market, we made passing reference yesterday to CAPE, Yale professor Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings measure. This led to quite a conversation via a series of e-mails and Twitter posts from an assortment of analysts and asset managers. I received research from or by Cliff Asness, Michael Kitces, Mebane…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Valuation

Wall St Bullishness vs Equities Complacency

Funny to wake up after yesterday’s selloff to see two such diametrically opposed views from major investment houses:    

Category: Analysts, Sentiment

What makes Analysts Cover Stocks?

David J. Merkel, CFA runs his own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments, running separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions. He has a background as a bond manager and life actuary and hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.     While at RealMoney,…Read More

Category: Analysts, Valuation

Single Variable Market Analysis is for Losers

If you work in finance, you will invariably come across an example of single-variable analysis. Almost daily, we see terrible examples of this sort of analytic error, rife with logical weakness, yet offered with the highest degree of certainty. The way this works is as follows: Some ominous data point will be shown, along with…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Investing, Philosophy, Psychology, Quantitative, Really, really bad calls

Are the Rating Agencies About to Get Their Comeuppance?

This week in encouraging news, we learn that the Securities and Exchange Commission may finally be pursuing one of the prime enablers of the financial crisis — the ratings companies. Previously, it was reported that disclosure violations were on the SEC’s radar, but truth be told, those are minor offenses. The SEC’s Office of Credit…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailout Nation, Credit, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

Debunking the Bear Case

These bullet points were from a (much longer) Merrill Lynch research piece last week. “With most of our market indicators flashing green, we address the bear cases below to either debunk them or provide evidence that the risks are priced into stocks.” 1. “The 5-year bull market is long in the tooth” 2. “Everybody’s bullish…Read More

Category: Analysts, Investing, Psychology

Arnott: Rebalancing Still Works

Robert Arnott is Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Research Affiliates, a global leader in smart beta and asset allocation strategies, and one of the originators of fundamental (as opposed to market cap weighted). His models now drive over $100 billion in assets in various funds, and an additional $75 billion at PIMCO. ~~~  …Read More

Category: Analysts, Asset Allocation, Investing, Really, really bad calls