Posts filed under “Analysts”

Debunking the Bear Case

These bullet points were from a (much longer) Merrill Lynch research piece last week.

“With most of our market indicators flashing green, we address the bear cases below to either debunk them or provide evidence that the risks are priced into stocks.”

1. “The 5-year bull market is long in the tooth”
2. “Everybody’s bullish – it’s time to sell”
3. “Valuations are too high”
4. ”Margins are peaked and poised to collapse”
5. “Higher rates are bad for equities”
6. “The Fed is about to take the punch bowl away”
7. “Europe continues to ail”
8. “China is a disaster waiting to happen”
9. “Dysfunction in Washington DC is spiraling out of control”
10. “Geopolitical tensions are running high”

They then proceed to make a good effort taking each of these items apart.

I cannot post the PDF as its copyrighted work product — but you should dig up a copy . . .

 

 

Source:
2014: Debunking the bear case
Savita Subramanian
BAML Equity and Quant Strategy
26 November 2013

Category: Analysts, Investing, Psychology

Arnott: Rebalancing Still Works

Robert Arnott is Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Research Affiliates, a global leader in smart beta and asset allocation strategies, and one of the originators of fundamental (as opposed to market cap weighted). His models now drive over $100 billion in assets in various funds, and an additional $75 billion at PIMCO. ~~~  …Read More

Category: Analysts, Asset Allocation, Investing, Really, really bad calls

QE & Ultra-low Interest Rates: Distributional Effects + Risks

Source: McKinsey & Company     McKinsey has a new study out on the impacts of QE. I have yet to read the full report (or summary) but the graphic above and excerpt below give you some flavor: The impact that ultra-low interest rates have had on banks has been mixed. They have eroded the…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Digital Media, Federal Reserve

USA’s ‘AAA’ Placed on Rating Watch Negative at Fitch

This is why you don’t fuck around with the debt ceiling: “Although Fitch continues to believe that the debt ceiling will be raised soon, the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a US default.” “Although the Treasury would still have limited capacity to make payments after Oct 17th it would…Read More

Category: Analysts, Credit, Really, really bad calls

Replacing Ratings

Category: Analysts, Think Tank

Kelly Evans Slaps Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker

Category: Analysts, UnGuru, Video

Reagan’s Million-Jobs Month Revisited

* Sigh.* @TBPInvictus here I see once again that the canard about Reagan’s million-jobs-month is making the rounds: “Reagan’s best job month garnered the very top ranking since WWII with 1,114,000 jobs added in September 1983. A single month with more than a million jobs added. So far Obama can only wish for such a…Read More

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Data Analysis, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Curse of the Macro Tourists

Scene: Dinner, Monday night Dramatis Personae: party of 8, including Fed staffer, Fund manager, VC, Trader, Media, et. al. (Notably absent were economists of any flavor, though some were present for pre-dinner drinks). Discussion: Post-mortem of Bernanke Q&A at press conference, how & when the Fed unwinds, whether the economy is strong enough to withstand…Read More

Category: Analysts, Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology

Time for an important lesson with someone else picking up the tuition costs: It is the Meredith Whitney story, and it is instructive to those of us who work in finance and occasionally engage the media. Any of you who might think an outrageous call is the way to achieve lasting fame and fortune on…Read More

Category: Analysts, Credit, Really, really bad calls

US vs Canadian Bank Regulations: Money Boo Boo

Internal e-mails implicate credit rating agencies in the 2008 financial crisis.

Money Boo Boo

Monday June 24, 2013 (04:33)

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Jason Jones teaches regulation-loving Canadian bankers the advantages of harmless free-market fun.

Money Boo Boo – The Canadian Banking System

Monday June 24, 2013 (05:49)

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Derivatives, Humor, Really, really bad calls, Regulation, Television, Video