Posts filed under “Analysts”
A mention by David Rosenberg in a recent note sent me scurrying to find this report from the San Francisco Fed in August of last year. The report — remember, it was almost one year ago — used the Leading Economic Indicators to assess the probability of another recession within the next 24 months (from that date, obviously):
Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.
The most interesting aspect of their work is the authors’ removal of the yield curve spread (after all, the yield curve simply cannot invert with short rates at the zero bound) from their LEI-based analysis of recession probabilities. The result (emphasis mine):
The last experiment drops the spread between the Treasury bond and the federal funds rate from the 10 LEI indicators. Historically, this spread, which summarizes the slope of the interest rate term structure, has been a very good predictor of turning points 12 to 18 months into the future. Specifically, an inverted yield curve has preceded each of the last seven recessions. However, the term structure may not presently be an accurate signal. Monetary policy has been operating near the zero lower bound to provide maximum monetary stimulus. In addition, the Greek fiscal crisis has generated a considerable flight to quality that has pushed down yields on U.S. Treasury securities. Indeed, the thick red line in Figure 3 shows that omitting the rate-spread indicator generates far more pessimistic forecasts. For the period 18 to 24 months in the future, the probability of recession goes above 0.5, putting the odds of recession slightly above the odds of expansion.
Would seem that the economy is beginning to track as forecast by Mssrs. Berge and Jordà.
Chinese Rating Agency Says “The US Has Already Defaulted” … German Rating Agency Downgrades U.S. Debt
While Baghdad Bob Ben Bernanke says that everything is fine, China’s Dagong credit rating agency says the U.S has already defaulted. As AFP reports: “‘In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting….Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies – eroding the wealth of creditors…Read More
This is insane stuff: “Researcher Eric Fischer mapped and analyzed millions of photos on flicker that were taken throughout the city and looked at their geo-tagged information — such as time and date they were shot –to determine patterns of interest. Although the sleek glass exterior of the Fifth Avenue Apple store gets the most…Read More
In April 2010, we discussed the false meme that defaulting homeowners were about to cause a surge in retail spending (Are Defaults Really Driving Retail Spending?). That blessedly data free idea turned out to be wrong. But as the backers of Supply-Side economics will tell you, its hard to keep a bad idea down. Thus, the…Read More
“LDL” is my new favorite acronym. Call it Wall Street prosecution arcana: To avoid putting into email any damaging info — especially about insider trading — some of the recent expert networks thought they might avoid prosecutions by using the acronym “LDL.” It is strewn throughout their emails, and informs the reciever that they are…Read More
There is a hefty profile of James J. Cramer in the NYT magazine this weekend that is worth reading. But here’s the one thing you need to understand about Jim Cramer: If you read financial blogs or follow StockTwits or do any sort of research online, the archeology of that traces back to Cramer. He…Read More
A technical break in oil and silver, increased margin requirements by the CME, and a fast exit by speculators have combined to whack the commodities complex by more than $100 billion in a week. The value of the 24 commodities tracked by S&P GSCI index fell almost $90 billion dollars. Add to that the precious…Read More